AIK vs Mjallby prediction
M
2026-09-16 · SWE · Kickoff 2026-09-16T17:00:00+00:00 (UTC)
What is the AIK vs Mjallby prediction?
Kickstatix prediction: AIK (H) at 44.8%. The double-chance call is 12 at 74.6%.
This forecast was published 2026-09-15T21:26:41+00:00 before kickoff. Probabilities express uncertainty and are not a guarantee.
Full time: 1–1
1X2 prediction: ✕ Wrong
GG and total goals
Market-implied full-match picks. Results use the saved one-hour pre-kickoff quote and require a verified football score.
Unavailable
No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.
Unavailable
No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.
1 · 44.8%
Low12 · 74.6%
LowDouble chance was published at 2026-09-16T03:04:38+00:00, before kickoff.
Market forecast cutoff
Locks one hour before kickoff: .
No eligible frozen forecast. No eligible market quote captured within 20 minutes before the one-hour cutoff. Excluded from market accuracy.
Prediction vs Market
Stale cached market data. Excluded from live comparisons.
The prices below are the latest observed market sentiment. Results are scored only against the one-hour frozen picks above.
These are post-kickoff prices and do not enter forecast performance.
| 90-minute 1X2 | Our model | Market sentiment | Market − model |
|---|---|---|---|
| AIK | 44.8% | 0.0% | N/A |
| Draw | 25.4% | 100.0% | N/A |
| Mjallby | 29.8% | 0.0% | N/A |
Closed or inactive market.
Activity describes trading participation, not prediction confidence. Our published baseline may use bookmaker odds. Market sentiment is excluded from model inputs.
Raw prices & normalization
For comparison, each raw price is divided by their total (100.00%). These are market prices, not factual chances of winning.
Home: 0.00% raw · Draw: 100.00% raw · Away: 0.00% raw
Probability movement · raw market prices
Changes measure market pricing, not evidence that a team will win. First available sample may be later than market opening.
AIK
Draw
Mjallby
All event markets · 3
Will AIK win on 2026-09-16?
moneyline · Closed · Resolved
Yes: 0.0% · No: 100.0%
Volume $22.81K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 4430483Fetched 2026-11-10T21:47:43+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-09-17T18:59:36.09064Z
Will AIK vs. Mjallby AIF end in a draw?
moneyline · Closed · Resolved
Yes: 100.0% · No: 0.0%
Volume $9.60K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 4430484Fetched 2026-11-10T21:47:43+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-09-17T20:24:48.485652Z
Will Mjallby AIF win on 2026-09-16?
moneyline · Closed · Resolved
Yes: 0.0% · No: 100.0%
Volume $9.49K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 4430486Fetched 2026-11-10T21:47:43+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-09-17T20:38:51.048266Z
Historical closing observations (not scored)
Retained for research. The market results record uses the separate one-hour cutoff.
Last pre-match observation: 2026-09-16T09:15:54+00:00.
View source event ↗ · Matched by competition, both team IDs, home/away order and kickoff.
Prediction reasoning & independent methods
- The selected source is shin_raw; H has probability 44.8%.
- Methods disagree: largest outcome spread 17%. Confidence reduced to Low.
- Team news is unavailable; High confidence is disabled.
| Method | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings | 34.4% | 37.8% | 27.8% |
| Market · margin removed | 44.8% | 25.4% | 29.8% |
| Statistical · hierarchical Poisson | 51.2% | 26.5% | 22.3% |
Pre-match stats, form & head to head
The original training snapshot is unavailable or failed integrity checks.
Team news & forecast record
Team news has not been verified.
Training ends: 2026-09-14
Data fingerprint: 9fdc5413aafa6fe8d1124f67de29bd3325a73745f6c089c40adee59ccd2a0ed8
Model: existing-source-policy-v1