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Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar prediction

2026-10-31 · N1 · Kickoff 2026-10-31T20:00:00+00:00 (UTC)

Generated football stadium illustration for the Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar match analysis

What is the Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar prediction?

Kickstatix prediction: Ajax (H) at 56.1%. The double-chance call is 12 at 79.7%.

This forecast was published 2026-10-30T09:55:46+00:00 before kickoff. Probabilities express uncertainty and are not a guarantee.

Full time: 1–0

1X2 prediction: ✓ Correct

GG and total goals

Market-implied full-match picks. Results use the saved one-hour pre-kickoff quote and require a verified football score.

GG / NG · MARKET-IMPLIED

Unavailable

No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.

OVER / UNDER 2.5 · MARKET-IMPLIED

Unavailable

No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.

1X2

1 · 56.1%

Medium
1 56.1%X 20.3%2 23.6%
Double chance

12 · 79.7%

Low
1X 76.4%X2 43.9%12 79.7%

Double chance was published at 2026-10-30T09:55:46+00:00, before kickoff.

Market forecast cutoff

Locks one hour before kickoff: .

No eligible frozen forecast. No eligible market quote captured within 20 minutes before the one-hour cutoff. Excluded from market accuracy.

TWO SIGNALS. ONE MATCH.

Prediction vs Market

MARKET SENTIMENT

Market sentiment unavailable. No verified market association. Our fixture and published prediction remain available.

Prediction reasoning & independent methods
  • The selected source is shin_raw; H has probability 56.1%.
  • Independent statistical and Elo methods agree on H; largest outcome spread 14%.
  • Team news is unavailable; High confidence is disabled.
Method1X2
Elo ratings41.7%34.1%24.1%
Market · margin removed56.1%20.3%23.6%
Statistical · hierarchical Poisson48.5%22.8%28.7%
Pre-match stats, form & head to head

From the original training snapshot through 2026-10-25. Averages use up to ten prior league matches.

Ajax

WDDWW

Scored / game: 2.90
Conceded / game: 1.30
Clean sheets: 2 / 10

2026-10-25Sparta Rotterdam (A)2–1
2026-10-18Groningen (A)5–2
2026-10-10Nijmegen (H)1–1
2026-09-19Excelsior (H)2–2
2026-09-15Willem II (H)5–1

AZ Alkmaar

DWLDL

Scored / game: 2.00
Conceded / game: 1.20
Clean sheets: 3 / 10

2026-10-25Twente (H)0–2
2026-10-18Cambuur (A)2–2
2026-10-10Feyenoord (A)0–2
2026-09-20Telstar (H)1–0
2026-09-11Willem II (H)1–1

Head to head

2026-02-08 · AZ Alkmaar 1–1 Ajax

2025-10-18 · Ajax 0–2 AZ Alkmaar

2025-03-16 · Ajax 2–2 AZ Alkmaar

2024-12-08 · AZ Alkmaar 2–1 Ajax

2024-02-25 · AZ Alkmaar 2–0 Ajax

Team news & forecast record

Team news has not been verified.

Published: 2026-10-30T09:55:46+00:00
Training ends: 2026-10-25
Data fingerprint: 5c8abbee2b05c1a5810763f48d4c24e7b0b55430be29d7f7fda2ee4907a4221a
Model: existing-source-policy-v1

View the complete prediction record →