Arsenal vs Everton prediction

2026-10-24 · E0 · Kickoff 2026-10-24T14:00:00+00:00 (UTC)

Generated football stadium illustration for the Arsenal vs Everton match analysis

What is the Arsenal vs Everton prediction?

Kickstatix prediction: Arsenal (H) at 68.2%. The double-chance call is 1X at 89.1%.

This forecast was published 2026-10-17T14:04:13+00:00 before kickoff. Probabilities express uncertainty and are not a guarantee.

Full time: 2–0

1X2 prediction: ✓ Correct

GG and total goals

Market-implied full-match picks. Results use the saved one-hour pre-kickoff quote and require a verified football score.

GG / NG · MARKET-IMPLIED

Unavailable

No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.

OVER / UNDER 2.5 · MARKET-IMPLIED

Unavailable

No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.

1X2

1 · 68.2%

Medium

1 68.2%X 20.9%2 10.9%

Double chance

1X · 89.1%

Medium

1X 89.1%X2 31.8%12 79.1%

Double chance was published at 2026-10-17T14:04:13+00:00, before kickoff.

Market forecast cutoff

Locks one hour before kickoff: 2026-10-24T13:00:00+00:00.

No eligible frozen forecast. No eligible market quote captured within 20 minutes before the one-hour cutoff. Excluded from market accuracy.

TWO SIGNALS. ONE MATCH.

Prediction vs Market

MARKET SENTIMENT

Stale cached market data. Excluded from live comparisons. 2026-11-06T20:29:32+00:00

The prices below are the latest observed market sentiment. Results are scored only against the one-hour frozen picks above.

These are post-kickoff prices and do not enter forecast performance.

90-minute 1X2	Our model	Market sentiment	Market − model
Arsenal	68.2%	100.0%	N/A
Draw	20.9%	0.0%	N/A
Everton	10.9%	0.0%	N/A

Closed or inactive market.

1X2 volume$3.47M

1X2 liquidityUnavailable

Market activityUnavailable

Event open interest$2.49M

Activity describes trading participation, not prediction confidence. Our published baseline may use bookmaker odds. Market sentiment is excluded from model inputs.

Raw prices & normalization

For comparison, each raw price is divided by their total (100.00%). These are market prices, not factual chances of winning.

Home: 100.00% raw · Draw: 0.00% raw · Away: 0.00% raw

Probability movement · raw market prices

Changes measure market pricing, not evidence that a team will win. First available sample may be later than market opening.

Arsenal

1 hourUnavailable

6 hoursUnavailable

24 hoursUnavailable

First available sample+31.5 pp68.5% → 100.0%

Draw

1 hourUnavailable

6 hoursUnavailable

24 hoursUnavailable

First available sample-53.0 pp53.0% → 0.0%

Everton

1 hourUnavailable

6 hoursUnavailable

24 hoursUnavailable

First available sample-47.5 pp47.5% → 0.0%

All event markets · 3

Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-24?

moneyline · Closed · Resolved

Yes: 100.0% · No: 0.0%

Volume $2.99M · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 5534122
Fetched 2026-11-06T20:29:32+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-25T16:58:50.701974Z

Will Arsenal FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw?

moneyline · Closed · Resolved

Yes: 0.0% · No: 100.0%

Volume $80.93K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 5534127
Fetched 2026-11-06T20:29:32+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-25T16:16:52.630131Z

Will Everton FC win on 2026-10-24?

moneyline · Closed · Resolved

Yes: 0.0% · No: 100.0%

Volume $400.83K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 5534129
Fetched 2026-11-06T20:29:32+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-25T16:46:50.939873Z

Historical closing observations (not scored)

Retained for research. The market results record uses the separate one-hour cutoff.

Last pre-match observation: 2026-10-24T13:57:49+00:00.

View source event ↗ · Matched by competition, both team IDs, home/away order and kickoff.

Prediction reasoning & independent methods

The selected source is hp_goals_blend_raw; H has probability 68.2%.
Independent statistical and Elo methods agree on H; largest outcome spread 15%.
Team news is unavailable; High confidence is disabled.
Fixture sourced from the market schedule; market prices are excluded from this model forecast.

Method	1	X	2
Elo ratings	55.2%	27.4%	17.4%
Statistical · hierarchical Poisson	69.9%	19.9%	10.2%

Pre-match stats, form & head to head

From the original training snapshot through 2026-10-12. Averages use up to ten prior league matches.

Arsenal

WWWLW

Scored / game: 1.70
Conceded / game: 0.60
Clean sheets: 6 / 10

2026-10-10Leeds (H)2–1

2026-09-19Brighton (A)0–3

2026-09-12Sunderland (A)2–0

2026-09-06Chelsea (H)2–1

2026-08-31Aston Villa (A)1–0

Everton

DDDWD

Scored / game: 1.40
Conceded / game: 1.40
Clean sheets: 3 / 10

2026-10-11Hull (A)2–2

2026-09-19Ipswich (H)1–0

2026-09-12Tottenham (A)0–0

2026-09-06Man United (H)2–2

2026-08-29Bournemouth (A)1–1

Head to head

2026-03-14 · Arsenal 2–0 Everton

2025-12-20 · Everton 0–1 Arsenal

2025-04-05 · Everton 1–1 Arsenal

2024-12-14 · Arsenal 0–0 Everton

2024-05-19 · Arsenal 2–1 Everton

Team news & forecast record

Team news has not been verified.

Published: 2026-10-17T14:04:13+00:00
Training ends: 2026-10-12
Data fingerprint: 7ee767c35c936718a6e2e91c6b26ac71c558217862a17dd8c4c80e38262af67d
Model: existing-source-policy-v1

View the complete prediction record →