Bournemouth vs Leeds prediction

2026-10-31 · E0 · Kickoff 2026-10-31T15:00:00+00:00 (UTC)

Generated football stadium illustration for the Bournemouth vs Leeds match analysis

What is the Bournemouth vs Leeds prediction?

Kickstatix prediction: Bournemouth (H) at 45.4%. The double-chance call is 1X at 72.9%.

This forecast was published 2026-10-30T09:55:14+00:00 before kickoff. Probabilities express uncertainty and are not a guarantee.

Full time: 2–0

1X2 prediction: ✓ Correct

GG and total goals

Market-implied full-match picks. Results use the saved one-hour pre-kickoff quote and require a verified football score.

GG / NG · MARKET-IMPLIED

Unavailable

No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.

OVER / UNDER 2.5 · MARKET-IMPLIED

Unavailable

No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.

1X2

1 · 45.4%

Low

1 45.4%X 27.5%2 27.1%

Double chance

1X · 72.9%

Low

1X 72.9%X2 54.6%12 72.5%

Double chance was published at 2026-10-30T09:55:14+00:00, before kickoff.

Frozen market prediction

Locks one hour before kickoff: 2026-10-31T14:00:00+00:00.

Quote captured 2026-10-31T13:55:41+00:00. 4.3 minutes before the cutoff. Record saved 2026-10-31T14:01:59+00:00.

Market 1X2 prediction

1 · 46.3%

✓ Correct

1 46.3%2 25.4%X 28.4%

Market double chance prediction

1X · 74.6%

✓ Correct

12 71.6%1X 74.6%X2 53.7%

TWO SIGNALS. ONE MATCH.

Prediction vs Market

MARKET SENTIMENT

Stale cached market data. Excluded from live comparisons. 2026-11-11T06:05:14+00:00

The prices below are the latest observed market sentiment. Results are scored only against the one-hour frozen picks above.

These are post-kickoff prices and do not enter forecast performance.

90-minute 1X2	Our model	Market sentiment	Market − model
Bournemouth	45.4%	100.0%	N/A
Draw	27.5%	0.0%	N/A
Leeds	27.1%	0.0%	N/A

Closed or inactive market.

1X2 volume$314.39K

1X2 liquidityUnavailable

Market activityUnavailable

Event open interest$232.22K

Activity describes trading participation, not prediction confidence. Our published baseline may use bookmaker odds. Market sentiment is excluded from model inputs.

Raw prices & normalization

For comparison, each raw price is divided by their total (100.00%). These are market prices, not factual chances of winning.

Home: 100.00% raw · Draw: 0.00% raw · Away: 0.00% raw

Probability movement · raw market prices

Changes measure market pricing, not evidence that a team will win. First available sample may be later than market opening.

Bournemouth

1 hourUnavailable

6 hoursUnavailable

24 hoursUnavailable

First available sample+58.0 pp42.0% → 100.0%

Draw

1 hourUnavailable

6 hoursUnavailable

24 hoursUnavailable

First available sample-27.0 pp27.0% → 0.0%

Leeds

1 hourUnavailable

6 hoursUnavailable

24 hoursUnavailable

First available sample-31.0 pp31.0% → 0.0%

All event markets · 3

Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-10-31?

moneyline · Closed · Resolved

Yes: 100.0% · No: 0.0%

Volume $152.16K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 5852347
Fetched 2026-11-11T06:05:14+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-11-01T17:30:26.57196Z

Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw?

moneyline · Closed · Resolved

Yes: 0.0% · No: 100.0%

Volume $71.56K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 5852348
Fetched 2026-11-11T06:05:14+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-11-01T16:56:27.586648Z

Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-10-31?

moneyline · Closed · Resolved

Yes: 0.0% · No: 100.0%

Volume $90.67K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 5852349
Fetched 2026-11-11T06:05:14+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-11-01T17:16:28.003116Z

Historical closing observations (not scored)

Retained for research. The market results record uses the separate one-hour cutoff.

Last pre-match observation: 2026-10-31T14:43:16+00:00.

View source event ↗ · Matched by competition, both team IDs, home/away order and kickoff.

Prediction reasoning & independent methods

The selected source is shin_raw; H has probability 45.4%.
Independent statistical and Elo methods agree on H; largest outcome spread 10%.
Team news is unavailable; High confidence is disabled.

Method	1	X	2
Elo ratings	42.4%	33.8%	23.8%
Market · margin removed	45.4%	27.5%	27.1%
Statistical · hierarchical Poisson	47.9%	24.0%	28.1%

Pre-match stats, form & head to head

From the original training snapshot through 2026-10-25. Averages use up to ten prior league matches.

Bournemouth

DLLWW

Scored / game: 1.40
Conceded / game: 1.50
Clean sheets: 2 / 10

2026-10-25Man United (A)3–0

2026-10-18Sunderland (H)2–0

2026-10-10Chelsea (A)1–5

2026-09-20Liverpool (H)0–1

2026-09-12Brentford (H)2–2

Leeds

WDLDD

Scored / game: 1.00
Conceded / game: 0.90
Clean sheets: 4 / 10

2026-10-25Sunderland (A)0–0

2026-10-18Man United (H)1–1

2026-10-10Arsenal (A)1–2

2026-09-20Crystal Palace (H)0–0

2026-09-14Newcastle (H)4–1

Head to head

2026-04-22 · Bournemouth 2–2 Leeds

2025-09-27 · Leeds 2–2 Bournemouth

2023-04-30 · Bournemouth 4–1 Leeds

2022-11-05 · Leeds 4–3 Bournemouth

Team news & forecast record

Team news has not been verified.

Published: 2026-10-30T09:55:14+00:00
Training ends: 2026-10-25
Data fingerprint: 4e5fc1555cf92756e31f10d0d9a4c2b0241d77509bfa5b3b8fa7130188f171a2
Model: existing-source-policy-v1

View the complete prediction record →