Burnley vs Derby prediction
D2026-09-19 · E1 · Kickoff 2026-09-19T14:00:00+00:00 (UTC)
What is the Burnley vs Derby prediction?
Kickstatix prediction: Burnley (H) at 53.6%. The double-chance call is 1X at 78.6%.
This forecast was published 2026-09-19T11:06:30+00:00 before kickoff. Probabilities express uncertainty and are not a guarantee.
Full time: 1–1
1X2 prediction: ✕ Wrong
GG and total goals
Market-implied full-match picks. Results use the saved one-hour pre-kickoff quote and require a verified football score.
Unavailable
No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.
Unavailable
No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.
1 · 53.6%
Low1X · 78.6%
LowDouble chance was published at 2026-09-19T11:06:30+00:00, before kickoff.
Market forecast cutoff
Locks one hour before kickoff: .
No eligible frozen forecast. No eligible market quote captured within 20 minutes before the one-hour cutoff. Excluded from market accuracy.
Prediction vs Market
Market sentiment unavailable. No verified market association. Our fixture and published prediction remain available.
Prediction reasoning & independent methods
- The selected source is shin_raw; H has probability 53.6%.
- Independent statistical and Elo methods agree on H; largest outcome spread 13%.
- Team news is unavailable; High confidence is disabled.
| Method | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings | 53.0% | 28.5% | 18.5% |
| Market · margin removed | 53.6% | 25.1% | 21.4% |
| Statistical · hierarchical Poisson | 66.5% | 21.8% | 11.8% |
Pre-match stats, form & head to head
The original training snapshot is unavailable or failed integrity checks.
Team news & forecast record
Team news has not been verified.
Training ends: 2026-09-15
Data fingerprint: 3f50df471e7b97b206ef590404ea90db24521b8010ff6e532768d3976af018b9
Model: existing-source-policy-v1