Catanzaro vs Ascoli prediction
A
2026-10-24 · I2 · Kickoff 2026-10-24T15:15:00+00:00 (UTC)
What is the Catanzaro vs Ascoli prediction?
Kickstatix prediction: Catanzaro (H) at 37.4%. The double-chance call is 12 at 72.3%.
This forecast was published 2026-10-23T14:10:00+00:00 before kickoff. Probabilities express uncertainty and are not a guarantee.
Full time: 1–6
1X2 prediction: ✕ Wrong
GG and total goals
Market-implied full-match picks. Results use the saved one-hour pre-kickoff quote and require a verified football score.
Unavailable
No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.
Unavailable
No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.
1 · 37.4%
Low12 · 72.3%
LowDouble chance was published at 2026-10-23T14:10:00+00:00, before kickoff.
Frozen market prediction
Locks one hour before kickoff: .
Quote captured 2026-10-24T14:14:50+00:00. 0.2 minutes before the cutoff. Record saved 2026-10-24T14:15:23+00:00.
1 · 40.0%
✕ Wrong12 · 71.5%
✓ CorrectPrediction vs Market
Stale cached market data. Excluded from live comparisons.
The prices below are the latest observed market sentiment. Results are scored only against the one-hour frozen picks above.
These are post-kickoff prices and do not enter forecast performance.
| 90-minute 1X2 | Our model | Market sentiment | Market − model |
|---|---|---|---|
| Catanzaro | 37.4% | 0.0% | N/A |
| Draw | 27.7% | 0.0% | N/A |
| Ascoli | 34.9% | 100.0% | N/A |
Closed or inactive market.
Activity describes trading participation, not prediction confidence. Our published baseline may use bookmaker odds. Market sentiment is excluded from model inputs.
Raw prices & normalization
For comparison, each raw price is divided by their total (100.00%). These are market prices, not factual chances of winning.
Home: 0.00% raw · Draw: 0.00% raw · Away: 100.00% raw
Probability movement · raw market prices
Changes measure market pricing, not evidence that a team will win. First available sample may be later than market opening.
Catanzaro
Draw
Ascoli
All event markets · 3
Will US Catanzaro 1929 win on 2026-10-24?
moneyline · Closed · Resolved
Yes: 0.0% · No: 100.0%
Volume $6.52K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 5541198Fetched 2026-11-11T21:45:25+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-25T16:36:50.340508Z
Will US Catanzaro 1929 vs. Ascoli Calcio 1898 FC end in a draw?
moneyline · Closed · Resolved
Yes: 0.0% · No: 100.0%
Volume $1.59K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 5541199Fetched 2026-11-11T21:45:25+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-25T16:54:51.157954Z
Will Ascoli Calcio 1898 FC win on 2026-10-24?
moneyline · Closed · Resolved
Yes: 100.0% · No: 0.0%
Volume $5.05K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 5541200Fetched 2026-11-11T21:45:25+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-25T17:12:50.978838Z
Historical closing observations (not scored)
Retained for research. The market results record uses the separate one-hour cutoff.
Last pre-match observation: 2026-10-24T14:57:02+00:00.
View source event ↗ · Matched by competition, both team IDs, home/away order and kickoff.
Prediction reasoning & independent methods
- The selected source is shin_raw; H has probability 37.4%.
- Independent statistical and Elo methods agree on H; largest outcome spread 11%.
- Team news is unavailable; High confidence is disabled.
| Method | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings | 38.3% | 35.8% | 25.8% |
| Market · margin removed | 37.4% | 27.7% | 34.9% |
| Statistical · hierarchical Poisson | 48.0% | 26.3% | 25.7% |
Pre-match stats, form & head to head
From the original training snapshot through 2026-10-18. Averages use up to ten prior league matches.
Catanzaro
Scored / game: 1.60
Conceded / game: 2.20
Clean sheets: 1 / 10
Ascoli
Scored / game: 1.20
Conceded / game: 0.90
Clean sheets: 2 / 10
Head to head
2024-02-10 · Catanzaro 3–2 Ascoli
2023-12-16 · Ascoli 1–0 Catanzaro
Team news & forecast record
Team news has not been verified.
Training ends: 2026-10-18
Data fingerprint: 8306efc184fc6b3b83fa4543fb0440b14e2fbd87f3cbd9718bc4442262374606
Model: existing-source-policy-v1