Catanzaro vs Padova prediction
P
2026-10-31 · I2 · Kickoff 2026-10-31T16:15:00+00:00 (UTC)
What is the Catanzaro vs Padova prediction?
Kickstatix prediction: Catanzaro (H) at 41.2%. The double-chance call is 12 at 72.2%.
This forecast was published 2026-10-30T09:55:40+00:00 before kickoff. Probabilities express uncertainty and are not a guarantee.
Full time: 1–1
1X2 prediction: ✕ Wrong
GG and total goals
Market-implied full-match picks. Results use the saved one-hour pre-kickoff quote and require a verified football score.
Unavailable
No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.
Unavailable
No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.
1 · 41.2%
Low12 · 72.2%
LowDouble chance was published at 2026-10-30T09:55:40+00:00, before kickoff.
Frozen market prediction
Locks one hour before kickoff: .
Quote captured 2026-10-31T15:13:18+00:00. 1.7 minutes before the cutoff. Record saved 2026-10-31T15:16:08+00:00.
1 · 40.3%
✕ Wrong12 · 71.6%
✕ WrongPrediction vs Market
Stale cached market data. Excluded from live comparisons.
The prices below are the latest observed market sentiment. Results are scored only against the one-hour frozen picks above.
These are post-kickoff prices and do not enter forecast performance.
| 90-minute 1X2 | Our model | Market sentiment | Market − model |
|---|---|---|---|
| Catanzaro | 41.2% | 0.0% | N/A |
| Draw | 27.8% | 100.0% | N/A |
| Padova | 31.0% | 0.0% | N/A |
Closed or inactive market.
Activity describes trading participation, not prediction confidence. Our published baseline may use bookmaker odds. Market sentiment is excluded from model inputs.
Raw prices & normalization
For comparison, each raw price is divided by their total (100.00%). These are market prices, not factual chances of winning.
Home: 0.00% raw · Draw: 100.00% raw · Away: 0.00% raw
Probability movement · raw market prices
Changes measure market pricing, not evidence that a team will win. First available sample may be later than market opening.
Catanzaro
Draw
Padova
All event markets · 3
Will US Catanzaro 1929 win on 2026-10-31?
moneyline · Closed · Resolved
Yes: 0.0% · No: 100.0%
Volume $5.99K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 5864215Fetched 2026-11-11T10:04:21+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-11-01T18:22:29.380546Z
Will US Catanzaro 1929 vs. Calcio Padova end in a draw?
moneyline · Closed · Resolved
Yes: 100.0% · No: 0.0%
Volume $5.99K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 5864217Fetched 2026-11-11T10:04:21+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-11-01T20:00:20.393814Z
Will Calcio Padova win on 2026-10-31?
moneyline · Closed · Resolved
Yes: 0.0% · No: 100.0%
Volume $4.57K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 5864219Fetched 2026-11-11T10:04:21+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-11-01T19:36:19.870035Z
Historical closing observations (not scored)
Retained for research. The market results record uses the separate one-hour cutoff.
Last pre-match observation: 2026-10-31T16:08:33+00:00.
View source event ↗ · Matched by competition, both team IDs, home/away order and kickoff.
Prediction reasoning & independent methods
- The selected source is shin_raw; H has probability 41.2%.
- Independent statistical and Elo methods agree on H; largest outcome spread 15%.
- Team news is unavailable; High confidence is disabled.
| Method | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings | 36.7% | 36.7% | 26.7% |
| Market · margin removed | 41.2% | 27.8% | 31.0% |
| Statistical · hierarchical Poisson | 51.8% | 24.9% | 23.3% |
Pre-match stats, form & head to head
From the original training snapshot through 2026-10-28. Averages use up to ten prior league matches.
Catanzaro
Scored / game: 1.20
Conceded / game: 2.40
Clean sheets: 1 / 10
Padova
Scored / game: 1.30
Conceded / game: 1.30
Clean sheets: 4 / 10
Head to head
2026-03-14 · Padova 1–3 Catanzaro
2025-10-19 · Catanzaro 0–1 Padova
Team news & forecast record
Team news has not been verified.
Training ends: 2026-10-28
Data fingerprint: 04e66601f1d2a45c01cd40052270ad13797ad0997d6de4b2edb438d5ec19a08a
Model: existing-source-policy-v1