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Derby vs Bolton prediction

2026-11-06 · E1 · Kickoff 2026-11-06T20:00:00+00:00 (UTC)

Generated football stadium illustration for the Derby vs Bolton match analysis

What is the Derby vs Bolton prediction?

Kickstatix prediction: Bolton (A) at 37.6%. The double-chance call is 12 at 73.3%.

This forecast was published 2026-11-06T11:27:42+00:00 before kickoff. Probabilities express uncertainty and are not a guarantee.

Full time: 3–1

1X2 prediction: ✕ Wrong

GG and total goals

Market-implied full-match picks. Results use the saved one-hour pre-kickoff quote and require a verified football score.

GG / NG · MARKET-IMPLIED

Unavailable

No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.

OVER / UNDER 2.5 · MARKET-IMPLIED

Unavailable

No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.

1X2

2 · 37.6%

Low
1 35.7%X 26.7%2 37.6%
Double chance

12 · 73.3%

Low
1X 62.4%X2 64.3%12 73.3%

Double chance was published at 2026-11-06T11:27:42+00:00, before kickoff.

Market forecast cutoff

Locks one hour before kickoff: .

No eligible frozen forecast. No eligible market quote captured within 20 minutes before the one-hour cutoff. Excluded from market accuracy.

TWO SIGNALS. ONE MATCH.

Prediction vs Market

MARKET SENTIMENT

Market sentiment unavailable. No verified market association. Our fixture and published prediction remain available.

Prediction reasoning & independent methods
  • The selected source is shin_raw; A has probability 37.6%.
  • Methods disagree: largest outcome spread 19%. Confidence reduced to Low.
  • Team news is unavailable; High confidence is disabled.
Method1X2
Elo ratings30.9%39.5%29.5%
Market · margin removed35.7%26.7%37.6%
Statistical · hierarchical Poisson49.8%23.5%26.7%
Pre-match stats, form & head to head

From the original training snapshot through 2026-11-04. Averages use up to ten prior league matches.

Derby

LLDLL

Scored / game: 0.60
Conceded / game: 2.20
Clean sheets: 0 / 10

2026-11-03Norwich (H)0–4
2026-10-31Millwall (A)1–4
2026-10-24Sheffield United (A)1–1
2026-10-17Stoke (H)0–1
2026-10-14QPR (A)1–4

Bolton

WDLLW

Scored / game: 1.50
Conceded / game: 2.10
Clean sheets: 3 / 10

2026-11-03Charlton (A)1–0
2026-10-31Bristol City (H)2–3
2026-10-23Middlesbrough (H)1–5
2026-10-17Southampton (A)0–0
2026-10-13Wolves (A)3–1

Head to head

No prior meetings in this archived dataset.

Team news & forecast record

Team news has not been verified.

Published: 2026-11-06T11:27:42+00:00
Training ends: 2026-11-04
Data fingerprint: 487925f8c67b5d9df031af7e6dd1902737f4d5041d15604e1d0762ee1b54ebf9
Model: existing-source-policy-v1

View the complete prediction record →