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Derby vs Norwich prediction

2026-11-03 · E1 · Kickoff 2026-11-03T19:45:00+00:00 (UTC)

Generated football stadium illustration for the Derby vs Norwich match analysis

What is the Derby vs Norwich prediction?

Kickstatix prediction: Norwich (A) at 47.3%. The double-chance call is 12 at 74.6%.

This forecast was published 2026-11-03T10:36:21+00:00 before kickoff. Probabilities express uncertainty and are not a guarantee.

Full time: 0–4

1X2 prediction: ✓ Correct

GG and total goals

Market-implied full-match picks. Results use the saved one-hour pre-kickoff quote and require a verified football score.

GG / NG · MARKET-IMPLIED

Unavailable

No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.

OVER / UNDER 2.5 · MARKET-IMPLIED

Unavailable

No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.

1X2

2 · 47.3%

Low
1 27.4%X 25.4%2 47.3%
Double chance

12 · 74.6%

Low
1X 52.7%X2 72.6%12 74.6%

Double chance was published at 2026-11-03T10:36:21+00:00, before kickoff.

Market forecast cutoff

Locks one hour before kickoff: .

No eligible frozen forecast. No eligible market quote captured within 20 minutes before the one-hour cutoff. Excluded from market accuracy.

TWO SIGNALS. ONE MATCH.

Prediction vs Market

MARKET SENTIMENT

Market sentiment unavailable. No verified market association. Our fixture and published prediction remain available.

Prediction reasoning & independent methods
  • The selected source is shin_raw; A has probability 47.3%.
  • Methods disagree: largest outcome spread 17%. Confidence reduced to Low.
  • Team news is unavailable; High confidence is disabled.
Method1X2
Elo ratings30.2%39.9%29.9%
Market · margin removed27.4%25.4%47.3%
Statistical · hierarchical Poisson39.2%25.3%35.5%
Pre-match stats, form & head to head

From the original training snapshot through 2026-10-31. Averages use up to ten prior league matches.

Derby

DLLDL

Scored / game: 0.80
Conceded / game: 1.80
Clean sheets: 1 / 10

2026-10-31Millwall (A)1–4
2026-10-24Sheffield United (A)1–1
2026-10-17Stoke (H)0–1
2026-10-14QPR (A)1–4
2026-10-10Wrexham (H)1–1

Norwich

LLLWW

Scored / game: 1.80
Conceded / game: 1.80
Clean sheets: 0 / 10

2026-10-31Watford (H)3–2
2026-10-24Charlton (A)3–1
2026-10-17Portsmouth (H)0–1
2026-10-14Southampton (H)0–1
2026-10-10Swansea (A)1–2

Head to head

2026-04-21 · Norwich 2–1 Derby

2025-10-21 · Derby 1–0 Norwich

2025-02-08 · Norwich 1–1 Derby

2024-09-28 · Derby 2–3 Norwich

Team news & forecast record

Team news has not been verified.

Published: 2026-11-03T10:36:21+00:00
Training ends: 2026-10-31
Data fingerprint: 5462217048d058a8f72e84c1f876646e5c035fc74beb62d3a98a3e6e7a1142e8
Model: existing-source-policy-v1

View the complete prediction record →