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Derby vs Stoke prediction

2026-10-17 · E1 · Kickoff 2026-10-17T14:00:00+00:00 (UTC)

Generated football stadium illustration for the Derby vs Stoke match analysis

What is the Derby vs Stoke prediction?

Kickstatix prediction: Stoke (A) at 39.8%. The double-chance call is 12 at 72.7%.

This forecast was published 2026-10-16T08:39:36+00:00 before kickoff. Probabilities express uncertainty and are not a guarantee.

Full time: 0–1

1X2 prediction: ✓ Correct

GG and total goals

Market-implied full-match picks. Results use the saved one-hour pre-kickoff quote and require a verified football score.

GG / NG · MARKET-IMPLIED

Unavailable

No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.

OVER / UNDER 2.5 · MARKET-IMPLIED

Unavailable

No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.

1X2

2 · 39.8%

Low
1 32.9%X 27.3%2 39.8%
Double chance

12 · 72.7%

Low
1X 60.2%X2 67.1%12 72.7%

Double chance was published at 2026-10-16T08:39:36+00:00, before kickoff.

Market forecast cutoff

Locks one hour before kickoff: .

No eligible frozen forecast. No eligible market quote captured within 20 minutes before the one-hour cutoff. Excluded from market accuracy.

TWO SIGNALS. ONE MATCH.

Prediction vs Market

MARKET SENTIMENT

Market sentiment unavailable. No verified market association. Our fixture and published prediction remain available.

Prediction reasoning & independent methods
  • The selected source is shin_raw; A has probability 39.8%.
  • Methods disagree: largest outcome spread 13%. Confidence reduced to Low.
  • Team news is unavailable; High confidence is disabled.
Method1X2
Elo ratings36.4%36.8%26.8%
Market · margin removed32.9%27.3%39.8%
Statistical · hierarchical Poisson44.9%27.4%27.7%
Pre-match stats, form & head to head

From the original training snapshot through 2026-10-14. Averages use up to ten prior league matches.

Derby

LLDDL

Scored / game: 0.90
Conceded / game: 1.90
Clean sheets: 1 / 10

2026-10-14QPR (A)1–4
2026-10-10Wrexham (H)1–1
2026-09-19Burnley (A)1–1
2026-09-12Birmingham (H)1–2
2026-09-09West Brom (H)0–1

Stoke

DWWWL

Scored / game: 1.70
Conceded / game: 1.60
Clean sheets: 2 / 10

2026-10-13Middlesbrough (H)2–3
2026-10-10Bolton (A)2–1
2026-09-19Sheffield United (H)2–1
2026-09-12Watford (A)2–1
2026-09-08Cardiff (A)1–1

Head to head

2026-04-06 · Derby 2–0 Stoke

2025-08-09 · Stoke 3–1 Derby

2025-05-03 · Derby 0–0 Stoke

2024-11-02 · Stoke 2–1 Derby

Team news & forecast record

Team news has not been verified.

Published: 2026-10-16T08:39:36+00:00
Training ends: 2026-10-14
Data fingerprint: 32a741e8b9a6cb5e5b3f3d332db12ba12ca3c681df373f2aa3e36e9bc0cd3d3d
Model: existing-source-policy-v1

View the complete prediction record →