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Derry City vs Dundalk prediction

2026-10-23 · IRL · Kickoff 2026-10-23T18:45:00+00:00 (UTC)

Generated football stadium illustration for the Derry City vs Dundalk match analysis

What is the Derry City vs Dundalk prediction?

Kickstatix prediction: Derry City (H) at 54.6%. The double-chance call is 1X at 78.9%.

This forecast was published 2026-10-23T11:57:10+00:00 before kickoff. Probabilities express uncertainty and are not a guarantee.

Full time: 2–1

1X2 prediction: ✓ Correct

GG and total goals

Market-implied full-match picks. Results use the saved one-hour pre-kickoff quote and require a verified football score.

GG / NG · MARKET-IMPLIED

Unavailable

No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.

OVER / UNDER 2.5 · MARKET-IMPLIED

Unavailable

No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.

1X2

1 · 54.6%

Low
1 54.6%X 24.3%2 21.1%
Double chance

1X · 78.9%

Low
1X 78.9%X2 45.4%12 75.7%

Double chance was published at 2026-10-23T11:57:10+00:00, before kickoff.

Market forecast cutoff

Locks one hour before kickoff: .

No eligible frozen forecast. No eligible market quote captured within 20 minutes before the one-hour cutoff. Excluded from market accuracy.

TWO SIGNALS. ONE MATCH.

Prediction vs Market

MARKET SENTIMENT

Market sentiment unavailable. No verified market association. Our fixture and published prediction remain available.

Prediction reasoning & independent methods
  • The selected source is shin_raw; H has probability 54.6%.
  • Methods disagree: largest outcome spread 18%. Confidence reduced to Low.
  • Team news is unavailable; High confidence is disabled.
Method1X2
Elo ratings46.6%31.7%21.7%
Market · margin removed54.6%24.3%21.1%
Statistical · hierarchical Poisson36.4%26.7%37.0%
Pre-match stats, form & head to head

From the original training snapshot through 2026-10-19. Averages use up to ten prior league matches.

Derry City

WDWLW

Scored / game: 1.60
Conceded / game: 1.70
Clean sheets: 4 / 10

2026-10-19St. Patricks (H)1–0
2026-10-16Drogheda (A)0–2
2026-09-18Galway (H)1–0
2026-09-14Waterford (A)2–2
2026-09-11Shelbourne (A)1–0

Dundalk

DLLLD

Scored / game: 1.30
Conceded / game: 2.00
Clean sheets: 0 / 10

2026-10-17Sligo Rovers (A)1–1
2026-10-02Bohemians (H)1–2
2026-09-18Shelbourne (H)2–3
2026-09-14St. Patricks (H)0–4
2026-09-11Waterford (A)1–1

Head to head

2026-05-29 · Dundalk 2–1 Derry City

2026-04-10 · Dundalk 2–2 Derry City

2026-02-13 · Derry City 2–2 Dundalk

2024-10-18 · Dundalk 0–2 Derry City

2024-08-09 · Derry City 1–1 Dundalk

Team news & forecast record

Team news has not been verified.

Published: 2026-10-23T11:57:10+00:00
Training ends: 2026-10-19
Data fingerprint: e9318a26ff391702db03b6e1c4e49540d590e0a431e704956c5994092016f322
Model: existing-source-policy-v1

View the complete prediction record →