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Derry City vs St. Patricks prediction

2026-10-19 · IRL · Kickoff 2026-10-19T19:00:00+00:00 (UTC)

Generated football stadium illustration for the Derry City vs St. Patricks match analysis

What is the Derry City vs St. Patricks prediction?

Kickstatix prediction: St. Patricks (A) at 41.0%. The double-chance call is 12 at 72.4%.

This forecast was published 2026-10-16T07:38:33+00:00 before kickoff. Probabilities express uncertainty and are not a guarantee.

Full time: 1–0

1X2 prediction: ✕ Wrong

GG and total goals

Market-implied full-match picks. Results use the saved one-hour pre-kickoff quote and require a verified football score.

GG / NG · MARKET-IMPLIED

Unavailable

No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.

OVER / UNDER 2.5 · MARKET-IMPLIED

Unavailable

No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.

1X2

2 · 41.0%

Low
1 31.4%X 27.6%2 41.0%
Double chance

12 · 72.4%

Low
1X 59.0%X2 68.6%12 72.4%

Double chance was published at 2026-10-16T07:38:33+00:00, before kickoff.

Market forecast cutoff

Locks one hour before kickoff: .

No eligible frozen forecast. No eligible market quote captured within 20 minutes before the one-hour cutoff. Excluded from market accuracy.

TWO SIGNALS. ONE MATCH.

Prediction vs Market

MARKET SENTIMENT

Market sentiment unavailable. No verified market association. Our fixture and published prediction remain available.

Prediction reasoning & independent methods
  • The selected source is shin_raw; A has probability 41.0%.
  • Methods disagree: largest outcome spread 12%. Confidence reduced to Low.
  • Team news is unavailable; High confidence is disabled.
Method1X2
Elo ratings31.1%39.4%29.4%
Market · margin removed31.4%27.6%41.0%
Statistical · hierarchical Poisson39.6%27.8%32.6%
Pre-match stats, form & head to head

From the original training snapshot through 2026-10-12. Averages use up to ten prior league matches.

Derry City

LDWDW

Scored / game: 1.80
Conceded / game: 1.60
Clean sheets: 4 / 10

2026-09-18Galway (H)1–0
2026-09-14Waterford (A)2–2
2026-09-11Shelbourne (A)1–0
2026-08-30Shamrock Rovers (H)3–3
2026-08-21Bohemians (A)3–5

St. Patricks

WLWWW

Scored / game: 1.70
Conceded / game: 0.60
Clean sheets: 5 / 10

2026-09-19Sligo Rovers (A)1–0
2026-09-14Dundalk (A)4–0
2026-09-11Shamrock Rovers (H)2–0
2026-08-28Waterford (H)0–2
2026-08-21Drogheda (A)2–0

Head to head

2026-08-02 · St. Patricks 1–1 Derry City

2026-05-22 · Derry City 0–0 St. Patricks

2026-03-16 · St. Patricks 0–0 Derry City

2025-08-29 · Derry City 2–2 St. Patricks

2025-06-23 · St. Patricks 0–1 Derry City

Team news & forecast record

Team news has not been verified.

Published: 2026-10-16T07:38:33+00:00
Training ends: 2026-10-12
Data fingerprint: 085e3a63349a2de6dde45cfd1f9428a6bf94e9587cb2bc2ef8c7c86e7d8db030
Model: existing-source-policy-v1

View the complete prediction record →