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Dortmund vs Werder Bremen prediction

2026-10-09 · D1 · Kickoff 2026-10-09T18:30:00+00:00 (UTC)

Generated football stadium illustration for the Dortmund vs Werder Bremen match analysis

What is the Dortmund vs Werder Bremen prediction?

Kickstatix prediction: Dortmund (H) at 73.4%. The double-chance call is 1X at 89.5%.

This forecast was published 2026-10-09T10:14:13+00:00 before kickoff. Probabilities express uncertainty and are not a guarantee.

Full time: 2–2

1X2 prediction: ✕ Wrong

GG and total goals

Market-implied full-match picks. Results use the saved one-hour pre-kickoff quote and require a verified football score.

GG / NG · MARKET-IMPLIED

Unavailable

No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.

OVER / UNDER 2.5 · MARKET-IMPLIED

Unavailable

No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.

1X2

1 · 73.4%

Medium
1 73.4%X 16.2%2 10.5%
Double chance

1X · 89.5%

Medium
1X 89.5%X2 26.6%12 83.8%

Double chance was published at 2026-10-09T10:14:13+00:00, before kickoff.

Market forecast cutoff

Locks one hour before kickoff: .

No eligible frozen forecast. No eligible market quote captured within 20 minutes before the one-hour cutoff. Excluded from market accuracy.

TWO SIGNALS. ONE MATCH.

Prediction vs Market

MARKET SENTIMENT

Market sentiment unavailable. No verified market association. Our fixture and published prediction remain available.

Prediction reasoning & independent methods
  • The selected source is shin_raw; H has probability 73.4%.
  • Independent statistical and Elo methods agree on H; largest outcome spread 17%.
  • Team news is unavailable; High confidence is disabled.
Method1X2
Elo ratings56.1%27.0%17.0%
Market · margin removed73.4%16.2%10.5%
Statistical · hierarchical Poisson70.8%16.5%12.7%
Pre-match stats, form & head to head

From the original training snapshot through 2026-09-20. Averages use up to ten prior league matches.

Dortmund

WWWWW

Scored / game: 1.90
Conceded / game: 0.80
Clean sheets: 5 / 10

2026-09-19Stuttgart (A)1–0
2026-09-12Paderborn (H)3–0
2026-09-05Hoffenheim (A)3–2
2026-08-29Hamburg (H)2–0
2026-05-16Werder Bremen (A)2–0

Werder Bremen

LLWDW

Scored / game: 1.40
Conceded / game: 1.90
Clean sheets: 0 / 10

2026-09-19Augsburg (H)3–2
2026-09-12FC Koln (A)1–1
2026-09-05RB Leipzig (H)3–1
2026-08-30Freiburg (A)1–4
2026-05-16Dortmund (H)0–2

Head to head

2026-05-16 · Werder Bremen 0–2 Dortmund

2026-01-13 · Dortmund 3–0 Werder Bremen

2025-01-25 · Dortmund 2–2 Werder Bremen

2024-08-31 · Werder Bremen 0–0 Dortmund

2024-03-09 · Werder Bremen 1–2 Dortmund

Team news & forecast record

Team news has not been verified.

Published: 2026-10-09T10:14:13+00:00
Training ends: 2026-09-20
Data fingerprint: b5125529521da3394cb69441b924d0a5b8d8180d9ddf97b296b7f54cc4b16d30
Model: existing-source-policy-v1

View the complete prediction record →