Dunkerque vs Metz prediction
M
2026-10-23 · F2 · Kickoff 2026-10-23T18:00:00+00:00 (UTC)
What is the Dunkerque vs Metz prediction?
Kickstatix prediction: Metz (A) at 39.8%. The double-chance call is 12 at 74.3%.
This forecast was published 2026-10-23T14:09:55+00:00 before kickoff. Probabilities express uncertainty and are not a guarantee.
Full time: 1–1
1X2 prediction: ✕ Wrong
GG and total goals
Market-implied full-match picks. Results use the saved one-hour pre-kickoff quote and require a verified football score.
Unavailable
No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.
Unavailable
No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.
2 · 39.8%
Low12 · 74.3%
LowDouble chance was published at 2026-10-23T14:09:55+00:00, before kickoff.
Frozen market prediction
Locks one hour before kickoff: .
Quote captured 2026-10-23T16:52:21+00:00. 7.7 minutes before the cutoff. Record saved 2026-10-23T17:00:23+00:00.
2 · 41.3%
✕ Wrong12 · 73.6%
✕ WrongPrediction vs Market
Stale cached market data. Excluded from live comparisons.
The prices below are the latest observed market sentiment. Results are scored only against the one-hour frozen picks above.
These are post-kickoff prices and do not enter forecast performance.
| 90-minute 1X2 | Our model | Market sentiment | Market − model |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dunkerque | 34.4% | 0.0% | N/A |
| Draw | 25.7% | 100.0% | N/A |
| Metz | 39.8% | 0.0% | N/A |
Closed or inactive market.
Activity describes trading participation, not prediction confidence. Our published baseline may use bookmaker odds. Market sentiment is excluded from model inputs.
Raw prices & normalization
For comparison, each raw price is divided by their total (100.00%). These are market prices, not factual chances of winning.
Home: 0.00% raw · Draw: 100.00% raw · Away: 0.00% raw
Probability movement · raw market prices
Changes measure market pricing, not evidence that a team will win. First available sample may be later than market opening.
Dunkerque
Draw
Metz
All event markets · 3
Will USL Dunkerque win on 2026-10-23?
moneyline · Closed · Resolved
Yes: 0.0% · No: 100.0%
Volume $2.00K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 5482523Fetched 2026-11-10T22:15:05+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-24T19:52:54.180637Z
Will USL Dunkerque vs. FC Metz end in a draw?
moneyline · Closed · Resolved
Yes: 100.0% · No: 0.0%
Volume $464 · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 5482524Fetched 2026-11-10T22:15:05+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-24T20:30:57.268226Z
Will FC Metz win on 2026-10-23?
moneyline · Closed · Resolved
Yes: 0.0% · No: 100.0%
Volume $1.83K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 5482525Fetched 2026-11-10T22:15:05+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-24T21:04:54.007909Z
Historical closing observations (not scored)
Retained for research. The market results record uses the separate one-hour cutoff.
Last pre-match observation: 2026-10-23T17:56:27+00:00.
View source event ↗ · Matched by competition, both team IDs, home/away order and kickoff.
Prediction reasoning & independent methods
- The selected source is shin_raw; A has probability 39.8%.
- Independent statistical and Elo methods agree on A; largest outcome spread 11%.
- Team news is unavailable; High confidence is disabled.
| Method | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings | 25.3% | 35.3% | 39.4% |
| Market · margin removed | 34.4% | 25.7% | 39.8% |
| Statistical · hierarchical Poisson | 27.1% | 24.6% | 48.3% |
Pre-match stats, form & head to head
From the original training snapshot through 2026-10-19. Averages use up to ten prior league matches.
Dunkerque
Scored / game: 1.50
Conceded / game: 1.80
Clean sheets: 0 / 10
Metz
Scored / game: 1.80
Conceded / game: 1.50
Clean sheets: 1 / 10
Head to head
2025-03-15 · Dunkerque 2–3 Metz
2024-12-09 · Metz 2–0 Dunkerque
Team news & forecast record
Team news has not been verified.
Training ends: 2026-10-19
Data fingerprint: dab292235240c33d2d6c74ba329a2c8ad29e83094ad239c6b60e685fc1f7ce84
Model: existing-source-policy-v1