Excelsior vs Twente prediction

2026-11-01 · N1 · Kickoff 2026-11-01T13:30:00+00:00 (UTC)

Generated football stadium illustration for the Excelsior vs Twente match analysis

What is the Excelsior vs Twente prediction?

Kickstatix prediction: Twente (A) at 60.9%. The double-chance call is X2 at 82.1%.

This forecast was published 2026-10-30T09:55:46+00:00 before kickoff. Probabilities express uncertainty and are not a guarantee.

Full time: 0–9

1X2 prediction: ✓ Correct

GG and total goals

Market-implied full-match picks. Results use the saved one-hour pre-kickoff quote and require a verified football score.

GG / NG · MARKET-IMPLIED

Unavailable

No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.

OVER / UNDER 2.5 · MARKET-IMPLIED

Unavailable

No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.

1X2

2 · 60.9%

Medium

1 17.9%X 21.2%2 60.9%

Double chance

X2 · 82.1%

Medium

1X 39.1%X2 82.1%12 78.8%

Double chance was published at 2026-10-30T09:55:46+00:00, before kickoff.

Frozen market prediction

Locks one hour before kickoff: 2026-11-01T12:30:00+00:00.

Quote captured 2026-11-01T12:19:54+00:00. 10.1 minutes before the cutoff. Record saved 2026-11-01T12:30:08+00:00.

Market 1X2 prediction

2 · 64.4%

✓ Correct

1 15.3%2 64.4%X 20.3%

Market double chance prediction

X2 · 84.7%

✓ Correct

12 79.7%1X 35.6%X2 84.7%

TWO SIGNALS. ONE MATCH.

Prediction vs Market

MARKET SENTIMENT

Stale cached market data. Excluded from live comparisons. 2026-11-11T04:03:55+00:00

The prices below are the latest observed market sentiment. Results are scored only against the one-hour frozen picks above.

These are post-kickoff prices and do not enter forecast performance.

90-minute 1X2	Our model	Market sentiment	Market − model
Excelsior	17.9%	0.0%	N/A
Draw	21.2%	0.0%	N/A
Twente	60.9%	100.0%	N/A

Closed or inactive market.

1X2 volume$41.54K

1X2 liquidityUnavailable

Market activityUnavailable

Event open interest$15.87K

Activity describes trading participation, not prediction confidence. Our published baseline may use bookmaker odds. Market sentiment is excluded from model inputs.

Raw prices & normalization

For comparison, each raw price is divided by their total (100.00%). These are market prices, not factual chances of winning.

Home: 0.00% raw · Draw: 0.00% raw · Away: 100.00% raw

Probability movement · raw market prices

Changes measure market pricing, not evidence that a team will win. First available sample may be later than market opening.

Excelsior

1 hourUnavailable

6 hoursUnavailable

24 hoursUnavailable

First available sample-50.0 pp50.0% → 0.0%

Draw

1 hourUnavailable

6 hoursUnavailable

24 hoursUnavailable

First available sample-31.0 pp31.0% → 0.0%

Twente

1 hourUnavailable

6 hoursUnavailable

24 hoursUnavailable

First available sample+50.0 pp50.0% → 100.0%

All event markets · 3

Will SBV Excelsior win on 2026-11-01?

moneyline · Closed · Resolved

Yes: 0.0% · No: 100.0%

Volume $9.22K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 5882544
Fetched 2026-11-11T04:03:55+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-11-02T14:07:27.313459Z

Will SBV Excelsior vs. FC Twente end in a draw?

moneyline · Closed · Resolved

Yes: 0.0% · No: 100.0%

Volume $3.00K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 5882545
Fetched 2026-11-11T04:03:55+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-11-02T14:15:28.962045Z

Will FC Twente win on 2026-11-01?

moneyline · Closed · Resolved

Yes: 100.0% · No: 0.0%

Volume $29.32K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 5882546
Fetched 2026-11-11T04:03:55+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-11-02T17:13:27.09734Z

Historical closing observations (not scored)

Retained for research. The market results record uses the separate one-hour cutoff.

Last pre-match observation: 2026-11-01T13:27:30+00:00.

View source event ↗ · Matched by competition, both team IDs, home/away order and kickoff.

Prediction reasoning & independent methods

The selected source is shin_raw; A has probability 60.9%.
Independent statistical and Elo methods agree on A; largest outcome spread 16%.
Team news is unavailable; High confidence is disabled.

Method	1	X	2
Elo ratings	22.4%	32.4%	45.3%
Market · margin removed	17.9%	21.2%	60.9%
Statistical · hierarchical Poisson	18.3%	21.1%	60.6%

Pre-match stats, form & head to head

From the original training snapshot through 2026-10-25. Averages use up to ten prior league matches.

Excelsior

LDLLL

Scored / game: 1.60
Conceded / game: 1.90
Clean sheets: 2 / 10

2026-10-25For Sittard (A)0–1

2026-10-16Heerenveen (A)0–4

2026-10-11Groningen (H)1–5

2026-09-19Ajax (A)2–2

2026-09-13Utrecht (H)1–2

Twente

WWDLW

Scored / game: 1.90
Conceded / game: 1.00
Clean sheets: 3 / 10

2026-10-25AZ Alkmaar (A)2–0

2026-10-18Utrecht (H)1–2

2026-10-10For Sittard (A)1–1

2026-09-20PSV Eindhoven (H)3–2

2026-09-12Den Haag (H)2–0

Head to head

2026-01-24 · Twente 0–0 Excelsior

2025-08-30 · Excelsior 1–0 Twente

2024-02-10 · Excelsior 0–3 Twente

2023-12-08 · Twente 4–2 Excelsior

2023-04-01 · Excelsior 0–0 Twente

Team news & forecast record

Team news has not been verified.

Published: 2026-10-30T09:55:46+00:00
Training ends: 2026-10-25
Data fingerprint: 5c8abbee2b05c1a5810763f48d4c24e7b0b55430be29d7f7fda2ee4907a4221a
Model: existing-source-policy-v1

View the complete prediction record →