Fenerbahce vs Alanyaspor prediction

2026-10-17 · T1 · Kickoff 2026-10-17T16:00:00+00:00 (UTC)

Generated football stadium illustration for the Fenerbahce vs Alanyaspor match analysis

What is the Fenerbahce vs Alanyaspor prediction?

Kickstatix prediction: Fenerbahce (H) at 74.2%. The double-chance call is 1X at 91.0%.

This forecast was published 2026-10-16T08:40:23+00:00 before kickoff. Probabilities express uncertainty and are not a guarantee.

Full time: 3–0

1X2 prediction: ✓ Correct

GG and total goals

Market-implied full-match picks. Results use the saved one-hour pre-kickoff quote and require a verified football score.

GG / NG · MARKET-IMPLIED

Unavailable

No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.

OVER / UNDER 2.5 · MARKET-IMPLIED

Unavailable

No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.

1X2

1 · 74.2%

Medium

1 74.2%X 16.8%2 9.0%

Double chance

1X · 91.0%

Medium

1X 91.0%X2 25.8%12 83.2%

Double chance was published at 2026-10-16T08:40:23+00:00, before kickoff.

Frozen market prediction

Locks one hour before kickoff: 2026-10-17T15:00:00+00:00.

Quote captured 2026-10-17T14:56:54+00:00. 3.1 minutes before the cutoff. Record saved 2026-10-17T15:00:16+00:00.

Market 1X2 prediction

1 · 76.9%

✓ Correct

1 76.9%2 8.5%X 14.6%

Market double chance prediction

1X · 91.5%

✓ Correct

12 85.4%1X 91.5%X2 23.1%

TWO SIGNALS. ONE MATCH.

Prediction vs Market

MARKET SENTIMENT

Stale cached market data. Excluded from live comparisons. 2026-11-11T23:04:28+00:00

The prices below are the latest observed market sentiment. Results are scored only against the one-hour frozen picks above.

These are post-kickoff prices and do not enter forecast performance.

90-minute 1X2	Our model	Market sentiment	Market − model
Fenerbahce	74.2%	100.0%	N/A
Draw	16.8%	0.0%	N/A
Alanyaspor	9.0%	0.0%	N/A

Closed or inactive market.

1X2 volume$151.93K

1X2 liquidityUnavailable

Market activityUnavailable

Event open interest$55.09K

Activity describes trading participation, not prediction confidence. Our published baseline may use bookmaker odds. Market sentiment is excluded from model inputs.

Raw prices & normalization

For comparison, each raw price is divided by their total (100.00%). These are market prices, not factual chances of winning.

Home: 100.00% raw · Draw: 0.00% raw · Away: 0.00% raw

Probability movement · raw market prices

Changes measure market pricing, not evidence that a team will win. First available sample may be later than market opening.

Fenerbahce

1 hourUnavailable

6 hoursUnavailable

24 hoursUnavailable

First available sample+51.0 pp49.0% → 100.0%

Draw

1 hourUnavailable

6 hoursUnavailable

24 hoursUnavailable

First available sample-50.0 pp50.0% → 0.0%

Alanyaspor

1 hourUnavailable

6 hoursUnavailable

24 hoursUnavailable

First available sample-49.0 pp49.0% → 0.0%

All event markets · 3

Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-10-17?

moneyline · Closed · Resolved

Yes: 100.0% · No: 0.0%

Volume $112.15K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 5239735
Fetched 2026-11-11T23:04:28+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-18T20:53:23.249781Z

Will Fenerbahçe SK vs. Alanyaspor end in a draw?

moneyline · Closed · Resolved

Yes: 0.0% · No: 100.0%

Volume $7.30K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 5239736
Fetched 2026-11-11T23:04:28+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-18T18:05:25.760452Z

Will Alanyaspor win on 2026-10-17?

moneyline · Closed · Resolved

Yes: 0.0% · No: 100.0%

Volume $32.48K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 5239737
Fetched 2026-11-11T23:04:28+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-18T18:05:25.760452Z

Historical closing observations (not scored)

Retained for research. The market results record uses the separate one-hour cutoff.

Last pre-match observation: 2026-10-17T15:49:49+00:00.

View source event ↗ · Matched by competition, both team IDs, home/away order and kickoff.

Prediction reasoning & independent methods

The selected source is shin_raw; H has probability 74.2%.
Independent statistical and Elo methods agree on H; largest outcome spread 20%.
Team news is unavailable; High confidence is disabled.

Method	1	X	2
Elo ratings	56.1%	27.0%	17.0%
Market · margin removed	74.2%	16.8%	9.0%
Statistical · hierarchical Poisson	75.8%	14.5%	9.7%

Pre-match stats, form & head to head

From the original training snapshot through 2026-10-12. Averages use up to ten prior league matches.

Fenerbahce

WLDWW

Scored / game: 2.80
Conceded / game: 1.00
Clean sheets: 5 / 10

2026-10-10Rizespor (A)3–0

2026-09-20Eyupspor (H)8–0

2026-09-14Gaziantep (A)0–0

2026-09-05Besiktas (H)1–2

2026-08-30Samsunspor (A)2–0

Alanyaspor

LWDWD

Scored / game: 1.20
Conceded / game: 0.90
Clean sheets: 4 / 10

2026-10-10Erzurumspor (H)0–0

2026-09-19Corum (A)2–1

2026-09-12Goztep (H)2–2

2026-09-07Rizespor (A)1–0

2026-08-30Eyupspor (A)1–2

Head to head

2026-01-18 · Alanyaspor 2–3 Fenerbahce

2025-09-17 · Fenerbahce 2–2 Alanyaspor

2025-02-09 · Alanyaspor 0–2 Fenerbahce

2024-08-30 · Fenerbahce 3–0 Alanyaspor

2024-02-11 · Fenerbahce 2–2 Alanyaspor

Team news & forecast record

Team news has not been verified.

Published: 2026-10-16T08:40:23+00:00
Training ends: 2026-10-12
Data fingerprint: 4f9cc7a45810eb0f0571e00b71514e32274b6cddc569d20421570b088aa20469
Model: existing-source-policy-v1

View the complete prediction record →