Girona vs Almeria prediction
A
2026-11-08 · SP2 · Kickoff 2026-11-08T15:15:00+00:00 (UTC)
What is the Girona vs Almeria prediction?
Kickstatix prediction: Girona (H) at 46.8%. The double-chance call is 1X at 73.6%.
This forecast was published 2026-11-06T11:28:11+00:00 before kickoff. Probabilities express uncertainty and are not a guarantee.
Full time: 0–1
1X2 prediction: ✕ Wrong
GG and total goals
Market-implied full-match picks. Results use the saved one-hour pre-kickoff quote and require a verified football score.
Unavailable
No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.
Unavailable
No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.
1 · 46.8%
Low1X · 73.6%
LowDouble chance was published at 2026-11-06T11:28:11+00:00, before kickoff.
Frozen market prediction
Locks one hour before kickoff: .
Quote captured 2026-11-08T14:09:57+00:00. 5.0 minutes before the cutoff. Record saved 2026-11-08T14:19:41+00:00.
1 · 47.8%
✕ Wrong1X · 73.9%
✕ WrongPrediction vs Market
Stale cached market data. Excluded from live comparisons.
The prices below are the latest observed market sentiment. Results are scored only against the one-hour frozen picks above.
These are post-kickoff prices and do not enter forecast performance.
| 90-minute 1X2 | Our model | Market sentiment | Market − model |
|---|---|---|---|
| Girona | 46.8% | 0.0% | N/A |
| Draw | 26.8% | 0.0% | N/A |
| Almeria | 26.4% | 100.0% | N/A |
Closed or inactive market.
Activity describes trading participation, not prediction confidence. Our published baseline may use bookmaker odds. Market sentiment is excluded from model inputs.
Raw prices & normalization
For comparison, each raw price is divided by their total (100.00%). These are market prices, not factual chances of winning.
Home: 0.00% raw · Draw: 0.00% raw · Away: 100.00% raw
Probability movement · raw market prices
Changes measure market pricing, not evidence that a team will win. First available sample may be later than market opening.
Girona
Draw
Almeria
All event markets · 3
Will Girona FC win on 2026-11-08?
moneyline · Closed · Resolved
Yes: 0.0% · No: 100.0%
Volume $8.37K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 6241489Fetched 2026-11-11T05:35:26+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-11-09T17:00:30.592047Z
Will Girona FC vs. UD Almería end in a draw?
moneyline · Closed · Resolved
Yes: 0.0% · No: 100.0%
Volume $537 · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 6241492Fetched 2026-11-11T05:35:26+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-11-09T17:10:31.215563Z
Will UD Almería win on 2026-11-08?
moneyline · Closed · Resolved
Yes: 100.0% · No: 0.0%
Volume $5.04K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 6241496Fetched 2026-11-11T05:35:26+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-11-09T19:08:28.049239Z
Historical closing observations (not scored)
Retained for research. The market results record uses the separate one-hour cutoff.
Last pre-match observation: 2026-11-08T15:09:14+00:00.
View source event ↗ · Matched by competition, both team IDs, home/away order and kickoff.
Prediction reasoning & independent methods
- The selected source is shin_raw; H has probability 46.8%.
- Methods disagree: largest outcome spread 31%. Confidence reduced to Low.
- Team news is unavailable; High confidence is disabled.
| Method | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings | 27.8% | 37.8% | 34.5% |
| Market · margin removed | 46.8% | 26.8% | 26.4% |
| Statistical · hierarchical Poisson | 58.9% | 20.3% | 20.8% |
Pre-match stats, form & head to head
From the original training snapshot through 2026-11-02. Averages use up to ten prior league matches.
Girona
Scored / game: 2.00
Conceded / game: 0.80
Clean sheets: 4 / 10
Almeria
Scored / game: 2.00
Conceded / game: 0.90
Clean sheets: 4 / 10
Head to head
No prior meetings in this archived dataset.
Team news & forecast record
Team news has not been verified.
Training ends: 2026-11-02
Data fingerprint: ff85fb71cc858931fb760706bbcebe97213b210217b01940ecd3a7df868d4bf2
Model: existing-source-policy-v1