Greuther Furth vs Holstein Kiel prediction

2026-11-01 · D2 · Kickoff 2026-11-01T12:30:00+00:00 (UTC)

Generated football stadium illustration for the Greuther Furth vs Holstein Kiel match analysis

What is the Greuther Furth vs Holstein Kiel prediction?

Kickstatix prediction: Greuther Furth (H) at 37.7%. The double-chance call is 12 at 75.0%.

This forecast was published 2026-10-30T09:55:08+00:00 before kickoff. Probabilities express uncertainty and are not a guarantee.

Full time: 1–0

1X2 prediction: ✓ Correct

GG and total goals

Market-implied full-match picks. Results use the saved one-hour pre-kickoff quote and require a verified football score.

GG / NG · MARKET-IMPLIED

Unavailable

No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.

OVER / UNDER 2.5 · MARKET-IMPLIED

Unavailable

No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.

1X2

1 · 37.7%

Low

1 37.7%X 25.0%2 37.3%

Double chance

12 · 75.0%

Low

1X 62.7%X2 62.3%12 75.0%

Double chance was published at 2026-10-30T09:55:08+00:00, before kickoff.

Frozen market prediction

Locks one hour before kickoff: 2026-11-01T11:30:00+00:00.

Quote captured 2026-11-01T11:26:17+00:00. 3.7 minutes before the cutoff. Record saved 2026-11-01T11:37:44+00:00.

Market 1X2 prediction

1 · 37.7%

✓ Correct

1 37.7%2 36.7%X 25.6%

Market double chance prediction

12 · 74.4%

✓ Correct

12 74.4%1X 63.3%X2 62.3%

TWO SIGNALS. ONE MATCH.

Prediction vs Market

MARKET SENTIMENT

Stale cached market data. Excluded from live comparisons. 2026-11-11T03:31:55+00:00

The prices below are the latest observed market sentiment. Results are scored only against the one-hour frozen picks above.

These are post-kickoff prices and do not enter forecast performance.

90-minute 1X2	Our model	Market sentiment	Market − model
Greuther Furth	37.7%	100.0%	N/A
Draw	25.0%	0.0%	N/A
Holstein Kiel	37.3%	0.0%	N/A

Closed or inactive market.

1X2 volume$50.60K

1X2 liquidityUnavailable

Market activityUnavailable

Event open interest$36.91K

Activity describes trading participation, not prediction confidence. Our published baseline may use bookmaker odds. Market sentiment is excluded from model inputs.

Raw prices & normalization

For comparison, each raw price is divided by their total (100.00%). These are market prices, not factual chances of winning.

Home: 100.00% raw · Draw: 0.00% raw · Away: 0.00% raw

Probability movement · raw market prices

Changes measure market pricing, not evidence that a team will win. First available sample may be later than market opening.

Greuther Furth

1 hourUnavailable

6 hoursUnavailable

24 hoursUnavailable

First available sample+50.5 pp49.5% → 100.0%

Draw

1 hourUnavailable

6 hoursUnavailable

24 hoursUnavailable

First available sample-49.5 pp49.5% → 0.0%

Holstein Kiel

1 hourUnavailable

6 hoursUnavailable

24 hoursUnavailable

First available sample-49.5 pp49.5% → 0.0%

All event markets · 3

Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth win on 2026-11-01?

moneyline · Closed · Resolved

Yes: 100.0% · No: 0.0%

Volume $25.06K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 5912719
Fetched 2026-11-11T03:31:55+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-11-02T16:03:28.793632Z

Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. Holstein Kiel end in a draw?

moneyline · Closed · Resolved

Yes: 0.0% · No: 100.0%

Volume $5.65K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 5912723
Fetched 2026-11-11T03:31:55+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-11-02T16:05:31.140518Z

Will Holstein Kiel win on 2026-11-01?

moneyline · Closed · Resolved

Yes: 0.0% · No: 100.0%

Volume $19.89K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 5912726
Fetched 2026-11-11T03:31:55+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-11-02T15:51:27.302531Z

Historical closing observations (not scored)

Retained for research. The market results record uses the separate one-hour cutoff.

Last pre-match observation: 2026-11-01T12:20:28+00:00.

View source event ↗ · Matched by competition, both team IDs, home/away order and kickoff.

Prediction reasoning & independent methods

The selected source is shin_raw; H has probability 37.7%.
Methods disagree: largest outcome spread 16%. Confidence reduced to Low.
Team news is unavailable; High confidence is disabled.

Method	1	X	2
Elo ratings	30.6%	39.7%	29.7%
Market · margin removed	37.7%	25.0%	37.3%
Statistical · hierarchical Poisson	36.7%	24.0%	39.3%

Pre-match stats, form & head to head

From the original training snapshot through 2026-10-25. Averages use up to ten prior league matches.

Greuther Furth

DDLWL

Scored / game: 1.50
Conceded / game: 1.60
Clean sheets: 2 / 10

2026-10-25Osnabruck (A)0–3

2026-10-17Braunschweig (H)2–0

2026-10-11Hertha (A)1–2

2026-09-18Magdeburg (H)1–1

2026-09-12Bochum (A)1–1

Holstein Kiel

LDLDW

Scored / game: 1.10
Conceded / game: 1.30
Clean sheets: 2 / 10

2026-10-25Dresden (H)3–0

2026-10-16Hertha (H)0–0

2026-10-09Braunschweig (A)0–1

2026-09-19Osnabruck (H)1–1

2026-09-13Heidenheim (A)0–1

Head to head

2026-01-31 · Holstein Kiel 1–2 Greuther Furth

2025-08-24 · Greuther Furth 0–2 Holstein Kiel

2024-01-28 · Greuther Furth 2–1 Holstein Kiel

2023-08-05 · Holstein Kiel 2–1 Greuther Furth

2023-01-28 · Holstein Kiel 2–1 Greuther Furth

Team news & forecast record

Team news has not been verified.

Published: 2026-10-30T09:55:08+00:00
Training ends: 2026-10-25
Data fingerprint: 4dcec789486c0fb7b23c796d401f159a234cd24fe094d59a94348132f09ebdad
Model: existing-source-policy-v1

View the complete prediction record →