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Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa prediction

2026-10-21 · MEX · Kickoff 2026-10-21T00:07:00+00:00 (UTC)

Generated football stadium illustration for the Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa match analysis

What is the Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa prediction?

Kickstatix prediction: Guadalajara Chivas (H) at 70.3%. The double-chance call is 1X at 88.4%.

This forecast was published 2026-10-20T12:08:34+00:00 before kickoff. Probabilities express uncertainty and are not a guarantee.

Full time: 1–0

1X2 prediction: ✓ Correct

GG and total goals

Market-implied full-match picks. Results use the saved one-hour pre-kickoff quote and require a verified football score.

GG / NG · MARKET-IMPLIED

Unavailable

No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.

OVER / UNDER 2.5 · MARKET-IMPLIED

Unavailable

No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.

1X2

1 · 70.3%

Low
1 70.3%X 18.1%2 11.6%
Double chance

1X · 88.4%

Low
1X 88.4%X2 29.7%12 81.9%

Double chance was published at 2026-10-20T12:08:34+00:00, before kickoff.

Market forecast cutoff

Locks one hour before kickoff: .

No eligible frozen forecast. No eligible market quote captured within 20 minutes before the one-hour cutoff. Excluded from market accuracy.

TWO SIGNALS. ONE MATCH.

Prediction vs Market

MARKET SENTIMENT

Market sentiment unavailable. No verified market association. Our fixture and published prediction remain available.

Prediction reasoning & independent methods
  • The selected source is shin_raw; H has probability 70.3%.
  • Methods disagree: largest outcome spread 22%. Confidence reduced to Low.
  • Team news is unavailable; High confidence is disabled.
Method1X2
Elo ratings52.0%29.0%19.0%
Market · margin removed70.3%18.1%11.6%
Statistical · hierarchical Poisson48.3%26.6%25.1%
Pre-match stats, form & head to head

From the original training snapshot through 2026-10-19. Averages use up to ten prior league matches.

Guadalajara Chivas

WDLDD

Scored / game: 1.80
Conceded / game: 1.00
Clean sheets: 3 / 10

2026-10-18Tigres UANL (H)1–1
2026-10-11Atlas (A)1–1
2026-09-27Queretaro (H)0–2
2026-09-20Club America (A)2–2
2026-09-14UNAM Pumas (H)3–0

Necaxa

LLLDL

Scored / game: 1.10
Conceded / game: 2.30
Clean sheets: 0 / 10

2026-10-17Atlas (H)0–2
2026-10-12Pachuca (A)3–3
2026-09-28Club America (H)2–4
2026-09-20Atl. San Luis (A)1–3
2026-09-12Puebla (H)0–1

Head to head

2026-04-23 · Necaxa 0–0 Guadalajara Chivas

2025-09-24 · Guadalajara Chivas 3–1 Necaxa

2025-01-18 · Necaxa 3–2 Guadalajara Chivas

2024-10-23 · Guadalajara Chivas 3–2 Necaxa

2024-02-21 · Necaxa 1–0 Guadalajara Chivas

Team news & forecast record

Team news has not been verified.

Published: 2026-10-20T12:08:34+00:00
Training ends: 2026-10-19
Data fingerprint: 6e7760e599bdbad62e94d194cf5825614d7dc1d6add4d638d57df86e31fedeb3
Model: existing-source-policy-v1

View the complete prediction record →