HamKam vs Sarpsborg 08 prediction

2026-11-08 · NOR · Kickoff 2026-11-08T16:00:00+00:00 (UTC)

Generated football stadium illustration for the HamKam vs Sarpsborg 08 match analysis

What is the HamKam vs Sarpsborg 08 prediction?

Kickstatix prediction: Sarpsborg 08 (A) at 44.5%. The double-chance call is 12 at 76.0%.

This forecast was published 2026-11-06T10:21:31+00:00 before kickoff. Probabilities express uncertainty and are not a guarantee.

Full time: 3–0

1X2 prediction: ✕ Wrong

GG and total goals

Market-implied full-match picks. Results use the saved one-hour pre-kickoff quote and require a verified football score.

GG / NG · MARKET-IMPLIED

Unavailable

No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.

OVER / UNDER 2.5 · MARKET-IMPLIED

Unavailable

No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.

1X2

2 · 44.5%

Low

1 31.6%X 24.0%2 44.5%

Double chance

12 · 76.0%

Low

1X 55.5%X2 68.4%12 76.0%

Double chance was published at 2026-11-06T10:21:31+00:00, before kickoff.

Frozen market prediction

Locks one hour before kickoff: 2026-11-08T15:00:00+00:00.

Quote captured 2026-11-08T14:55:00+00:00. 5.0 minutes before the cutoff. Record saved 2026-11-08T15:00:07+00:00.

Market 1X2 prediction

2 · 41.9%

✕ Wrong

1 33.0%2 41.9%X 25.1%

Market double chance prediction

12 · 74.9%

✓ Correct

12 74.9%1X 58.1%X2 67.0%

TWO SIGNALS. ONE MATCH.

Prediction vs Market

MARKET SENTIMENT

Stale cached market data. Excluded from live comparisons. 2026-11-11T06:10:36+00:00

The prices below are the latest observed market sentiment. Results are scored only against the one-hour frozen picks above.

These are post-kickoff prices and do not enter forecast performance.

90-minute 1X2	Our model	Market sentiment	Market − model
HamKam	31.6%	100.0%	N/A
Draw	24.0%	0.0%	N/A
Sarpsborg 08	44.5%	0.0%	N/A

Closed or inactive market.

1X2 volume$7.21K

1X2 liquidityUnavailable

Market activityUnavailable

Event open interest$6.27K

Activity describes trading participation, not prediction confidence. Our published baseline may use bookmaker odds. Market sentiment is excluded from model inputs.

Raw prices & normalization

For comparison, each raw price is divided by their total (100.00%). These are market prices, not factual chances of winning.

Home: 100.00% raw · Draw: 0.00% raw · Away: 0.00% raw

Probability movement · raw market prices

Changes measure market pricing, not evidence that a team will win. First available sample may be later than market opening.

HamKam

1 hourUnavailable

6 hoursUnavailable

24 hoursUnavailable

First available sample+50.5 pp49.5% → 100.0%

Draw

1 hourUnavailable

6 hoursUnavailable

24 hoursUnavailable

First available sample-50.0 pp50.0% → 0.0%

Sarpsborg 08

1 hourUnavailable

6 hoursUnavailable

24 hoursUnavailable

First available sample-49.5 pp49.5% → 0.0%

All event markets · 3

Will Hamarkameratene win on 2026-11-08?

moneyline · Closed · Resolved

Yes: 100.0% · No: 0.0%

Volume $2.09K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 6220555
Fetched 2026-11-11T06:10:36+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-11-09T18:34:28.274338Z

Will Hamarkameratene vs. Sarpsborg 08 FF end in a draw?

moneyline · Closed · Resolved

Yes: 0.0% · No: 100.0%

Volume $694 · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 6220556
Fetched 2026-11-11T06:10:36+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-11-09T17:48:30.250359Z

Will Sarpsborg 08 FF win on 2026-11-08?

moneyline · Closed · Resolved

Yes: 0.0% · No: 100.0%

Volume $4.43K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 6220557
Fetched 2026-11-11T06:10:36+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-11-09T18:46:29.94733Z

Historical closing observations (not scored)

Retained for research. The market results record uses the separate one-hour cutoff.

Last pre-match observation: 2026-11-08T15:53:14+00:00.

View source event ↗ · Matched by competition, both team IDs, home/away order and kickoff.

Prediction reasoning & independent methods

The selected source is shin_raw; A has probability 44.5%.
Methods disagree: largest outcome spread 15%. Confidence reduced to Low.
Team news is unavailable; High confidence is disabled.

Method	1	X	2
Elo ratings	31.4%	39.3%	29.3%
Market · margin removed	31.6%	24.0%	44.5%
Statistical · hierarchical Poisson	43.4%	25.0%	31.6%

Pre-match stats, form & head to head

From the original training snapshot through 2026-11-01. Averages use up to ten prior league matches.

HamKam

LWLLD

Scored / game: 1.20
Conceded / game: 2.70
Clean sheets: 0 / 10

2026-11-01KFUM Oslo (A)2–2

2026-10-24Rosenborg (H)0–3

2026-10-17Bodo/Glimt (H)0–2

2026-10-11Start (A)4–2

2026-09-20Tromso (A)2–3

Sarpsborg 08

LWLWL

Scored / game: 1.40
Conceded / game: 2.00
Clean sheets: 1 / 10

2026-11-01Kristiansund (H)2–4

2026-10-25Aalesund (H)2–1

2026-10-18Rosenborg (H)0–3

2026-10-11Aalesund (A)4–2

2026-09-18KFUM Oslo (H)1–3

Head to head

2026-07-26 · Sarpsborg 08 1–0 HamKam

2025-08-31 · HamKam 1–3 Sarpsborg 08

2025-05-11 · Sarpsborg 08 4–0 HamKam

2024-10-20 · HamKam 0–2 Sarpsborg 08

2024-05-16 · Sarpsborg 08 1–7 HamKam

Team news & forecast record

Team news has not been verified.

Published: 2026-11-06T10:21:31+00:00
Training ends: 2026-11-01
Data fingerprint: 3212df28621a4aae9aed1c8be8ab0f80fcbaf197946fdad690be68888bb74241
Model: existing-source-policy-v1

View the complete prediction record →