Hearts vs St Mirren prediction
SM
2026-10-10 · SC0 · Kickoff 2026-10-10T14:00:00+00:00 (UTC)
What is the Hearts vs St Mirren prediction?
Kickstatix prediction: Hearts (H) at 66.1%. The double-chance call is 1X at 84.8%.
This forecast was published 2026-10-09T10:14:40+00:00 before kickoff. Probabilities express uncertainty and are not a guarantee.
Full time: 5–0
1X2 prediction: ✓ Correct
GG and total goals
Market-implied full-match picks. Results use the saved one-hour pre-kickoff quote and require a verified football score.
Unavailable
No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.
Unavailable
No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.
1 · 66.1%
Medium1X · 84.8%
MediumDouble chance was published at 2026-10-09T10:14:40+00:00, before kickoff.
Market forecast cutoff
Locks one hour before kickoff: .
No eligible frozen forecast. No eligible market quote captured within 20 minutes before the one-hour cutoff. Excluded from market accuracy.
Prediction vs Market
Market sentiment unavailable. No verified market association. Our fixture and published prediction remain available.
Prediction reasoning & independent methods
- The selected source is shin_raw; H has probability 66.1%.
- Independent statistical and Elo methods agree on H; largest outcome spread 12%.
- Team news is unavailable; High confidence is disabled.
| Method | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings | 54.1% | 28.0% | 18.0% |
| Market · margin removed | 66.1% | 18.6% | 15.2% |
| Statistical · hierarchical Poisson | 59.9% | 23.0% | 17.1% |
Pre-match stats, form & head to head
From the original training snapshot through 2026-09-20. Averages use up to ten prior league matches.
Hearts
Scored / game: 1.90
Conceded / game: 1.20
Clean sheets: 2 / 10
St Mirren
Scored / game: 1.10
Conceded / game: 1.30
Clean sheets: 4 / 10
Head to head
2026-02-03 · St Mirren 1–0 Hearts
2026-01-14 · Hearts 2–0 St Mirren
2025-10-29 · St Mirren 2–2 Hearts
2025-02-26 · Hearts 3–1 St Mirren
2024-10-19 · Hearts 4–0 St Mirren
Team news & forecast record
Team news has not been verified.
Training ends: 2026-09-20
Data fingerprint: b155a0a48d067188cb30f8195b9602c9b2ff43b4da85a1db1619d6d1292f596b
Model: existing-source-policy-v1