Hoffenheim vs Leverkusen prediction

2026-10-25 · D1 · Kickoff 2026-10-25T14:30:00+00:00 (UTC)

Generated football stadium illustration for the Hoffenheim vs Leverkusen match analysis

What is the Hoffenheim vs Leverkusen prediction?

Kickstatix prediction: Leverkusen (A) at 41.5%. The double-chance call is 12 at 75.6%.

This forecast was published 2026-10-23T14:09:36+00:00 before kickoff. Probabilities express uncertainty and are not a guarantee.

Full time: 3–0

1X2 prediction: ✕ Wrong

GG and total goals

Market-implied full-match picks. Results use the saved one-hour pre-kickoff quote and require a verified football score.

GG / NG · MARKET-IMPLIED

GG · 73.5%

✕ Wrong

GG 73.5%NG 26.5%

OVER / UNDER 2.5 · MARKET-IMPLIED

Over 2.5 · 74.5%

✓ Correct

Over 2.5 74.5%Under 2.5 25.5%

1X2

2 · 41.5%

Low

1 34.0%X 24.4%2 41.5%

Double chance

12 · 75.6%

Low

1X 58.5%X2 66.0%12 75.6%

Double chance was published at 2026-10-23T14:09:36+00:00, before kickoff.

Frozen market prediction

Locks one hour before kickoff: 2026-10-25T13:30:00+00:00.

Quote captured 2026-10-25T13:26:10+00:00. 3.8 minutes before the cutoff. Record saved 2026-10-25T13:30:28+00:00.

Market 1X2 prediction

2 · 47.3%

✕ Wrong

1 29.4%2 47.3%X 23.4%

Market double chance prediction

12 · 76.6%

✓ Correct

12 76.6%1X 52.7%X2 70.6%

TWO SIGNALS. ONE MATCH.

Prediction vs Market

MARKET SENTIMENT

Stale cached market data. Excluded from live comparisons. 2026-11-11T17:09:53+00:00

The prices below are the latest observed market sentiment. Results are scored only against the one-hour frozen picks above.

These are post-kickoff prices and do not enter forecast performance.

90-minute 1X2	Our model	Market sentiment	Market − model
Hoffenheim	34.0%	100.0%	N/A
Draw	24.4%	0.0%	N/A
Leverkusen	41.5%	0.0%	N/A

Closed or inactive market.

1X2 volume$414.72K

1X2 liquidityUnavailable

Market activityUnavailable

Event open interest$250.73K

Activity describes trading participation, not prediction confidence. Our published baseline may use bookmaker odds. Market sentiment is excluded from model inputs.

Raw prices & normalization

For comparison, each raw price is divided by their total (100.00%). These are market prices, not factual chances of winning.

Home: 100.00% raw · Draw: 0.00% raw · Away: 0.00% raw

Probability movement · raw market prices

Changes measure market pricing, not evidence that a team will win. First available sample may be later than market opening.

Hoffenheim

1 hourUnavailable

6 hoursUnavailable

24 hoursUnavailable

First available sample+65.0 pp35.0% → 100.0%

Draw

1 hourUnavailable

6 hoursUnavailable

24 hoursUnavailable

First available sample-58.0 pp58.0% → 0.0%

Leverkusen

1 hourUnavailable

6 hoursUnavailable

24 hoursUnavailable

First available sample-40.5 pp40.5% → 0.0%

All event markets · 3

Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-10-25?

moneyline · Closed · Resolved

Yes: 100.0% · No: 0.0%

Volume $195.81K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 5593578
Fetched 2026-11-11T17:09:53+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-26T16:54:49.556071Z

Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw?

moneyline · Closed · Resolved

Yes: 0.0% · No: 100.0%

Volume $37.05K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 5593580
Fetched 2026-11-11T17:09:53+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-26T16:32:50.976743Z

Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-10-25?

moneyline · Closed · Resolved

Yes: 0.0% · No: 100.0%

Volume $181.86K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 5593588
Fetched 2026-11-11T17:09:53+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-26T16:58:49.001192Z

Historical closing observations (not scored)

Retained for research. The market results record uses the separate one-hour cutoff.

Last pre-match observation: 2026-10-25T14:28:43+00:00.

View source event ↗ · Matched by competition, both team IDs, home/away order and kickoff.

Prediction reasoning & independent methods

The selected source is shin_raw; A has probability 41.5%.
Independent statistical and Elo methods agree on A; largest outcome spread 14%.
Team news is unavailable; High confidence is disabled.

Method	1	X	2
Elo ratings	25.4%	35.4%	39.2%
Market · margin removed	34.0%	24.4%	41.5%
Statistical · hierarchical Poisson	26.2%	21.0%	52.8%

Pre-match stats, form & head to head

From the original training snapshot through 2026-10-18. Averages use up to ten prior league matches.

Hoffenheim

LWLLW

Scored / game: 1.70
Conceded / game: 2.20
Clean sheets: 1 / 10

2026-10-18M'gladbach (A)2–1

2026-10-10Hamburg (H)2–3

2026-09-20Paderborn (A)1–3

2026-09-12Stuttgart (H)2–1

2026-09-05Dortmund (H)2–3

Leverkusen

WDWWW

Scored / game: 2.40
Conceded / game: 1.50
Clean sheets: 2 / 10

2026-10-18Freiburg (H)2–1

2026-10-10Mainz (A)4–3

2026-09-20RB Leipzig (H)2–0

2026-09-12Augsburg (A)2–2

2026-09-05Union Berlin (H)4–0

Head to head

2026-01-17 · Hoffenheim 1–0 Leverkusen

2025-08-23 · Leverkusen 1–2 Hoffenheim

2025-02-02 · Leverkusen 3–1 Hoffenheim

2024-09-14 · Hoffenheim 1–4 Leverkusen

2024-03-30 · Leverkusen 2–1 Hoffenheim

Team news & forecast record

Team news has not been verified.

Published: 2026-10-23T14:09:36+00:00
Training ends: 2026-10-18
Data fingerprint: c8df41ec4adb8380acae10d2e7268b39dc20931c00fb0cc6dad6141ee14c799e
Model: existing-source-policy-v1

View the complete prediction record →