Hornchurch vs Aldershot prediction
A
2026-09-29 · EC · Kickoff 2026-09-29T18:45:00+00:00 (UTC)
What is the Hornchurch vs Aldershot prediction?
Kickstatix prediction: Hornchurch (H) at 43.8%. The double-chance call is 12 at 74.4%.
This forecast was published 2026-09-29T09:16:54+00:00 before kickoff. Probabilities express uncertainty and are not a guarantee.
Full time: 2–1
1X2 prediction: ✓ Correct
GG and total goals
Market-implied full-match picks. Results use the saved one-hour pre-kickoff quote and require a verified football score.
Unavailable
No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.
Unavailable
No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.
1 · 43.8%
Low12 · 74.4%
LowDouble chance was published at 2026-09-29T09:16:54+00:00, before kickoff.
Market forecast cutoff
Locks one hour before kickoff: .
No eligible frozen forecast. No eligible market quote captured within 20 minutes before the one-hour cutoff. Excluded from market accuracy.
Prediction vs Market
Market sentiment unavailable. No verified market association. Our fixture and published prediction remain available.
Prediction reasoning & independent methods
- The selected source is shin_raw; H has probability 43.8%.
- Independent statistical and Elo methods agree on H; largest outcome spread 11%.
- Team news is unavailable; High confidence is disabled.
| Method | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings | 40.2% | 34.9% | 24.9% |
| Market · margin removed | 43.8% | 25.6% | 30.6% |
| Statistical · hierarchical Poisson | 43.8% | 24.0% | 32.2% |
Pre-match stats, form & head to head
From the original training snapshot through 2026-09-26. Averages use up to ten prior league matches.
Hornchurch
Scored / game: 1.10
Conceded / game: 1.50
Clean sheets: 3 / 10
Aldershot
Scored / game: 1.50
Conceded / game: 0.80
Clean sheets: 2 / 10
Head to head
No prior meetings in this archived dataset.
Team news & forecast record
Team news has not been verified.
Training ends: 2026-09-26
Data fingerprint: c7a6d205c7c2970e1808c05457c94d7ff0e79e100b07c2ce6a6d65ada9bcdab4
Model: existing-source-policy-v1