Leganes vs Burgos prediction
B
2026-11-13 · SP2 · Kickoff 2026-11-13T19:30:00+00:00 (UTC)
What is the Leganes vs Burgos prediction?
Kickstatix prediction: Leganes (H) at 39.0%. The double-chance call is 12 at 70.6%.
This forecast was published 2026-11-13T14:42:10+00:00 before kickoff. Probabilities express uncertainty and are not a guarantee.
GG and total goals
Market-implied full-match picks. Results use the saved one-hour pre-kickoff quote and require a verified football score.
GG · 50.5%
Verified score unavailable
Under 2.5 · 57.5%
Verified score unavailable
1 · 39.0%
Low12 · 70.6%
LowDouble chance was published at 2026-11-13T14:42:10+00:00, before kickoff.
Frozen market prediction
Locks one hour before kickoff: .
Quote captured 2026-11-13T18:25:38+00:00. 4.4 minutes before the cutoff. Record saved 2026-11-13T18:32:23+00:00.
1 · 39.3%
✓ Correct1X · 69.7%
✓ CorrectResult from the resolved 90-minute market: Home win. A verified football score is not available.
Prediction vs Market
Stale cached market data. Excluded from live comparisons.
The prices below are the latest observed market sentiment. Results are scored only against the one-hour frozen picks above.
These are post-kickoff prices and do not enter forecast performance.
| 90-minute 1X2 | Our model | Market sentiment | Market − model |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leganes | 39.0% | 100.0% | N/A |
| Draw | 29.4% | 0.0% | N/A |
| Burgos | 31.6% | 0.0% | N/A |
Closed or inactive market.
Activity describes trading participation, not prediction confidence. Our published baseline may use bookmaker odds. Market sentiment is excluded from model inputs.
Raw prices & normalization
For comparison, each raw price is divided by their total (100.00%). These are market prices, not factual chances of winning.
Home: 100.00% raw · Draw: 0.00% raw · Away: 0.00% raw
Probability movement · raw market prices
Changes measure market pricing, not evidence that a team will win. First available sample may be later than market opening.
Leganes
Draw
Burgos
All event markets · 3
Will CD Leganés win on 2026-11-13?
moneyline · Closed · Resolved
Yes: 100.0% · No: 0.0%
Volume $150.44K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 6446627Fetched 2026-11-14T13:03:45+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-11-14T12:52:09.82167Z
Will CD Leganés vs. Burgos CF end in a draw?
moneyline · Closed · Resolved
Yes: 0.0% · No: 100.0%
Volume $30.32K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 6446628Fetched 2026-11-14T13:03:45+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-11-14T12:52:09.82167Z
Will Burgos CF win on 2026-11-13?
moneyline · Closed · Resolved
Yes: 0.0% · No: 100.0%
Volume $78.87K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 6446629Fetched 2026-11-14T13:03:45+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-11-14T12:52:09.82167Z
Historical closing observations (not scored)
Retained for research. The market results record uses the separate one-hour cutoff.
Last pre-match observation: 2026-11-13T19:10:59+00:00.
View source event ↗ · Matched by competition, both team IDs, home/away order and kickoff.
Prediction reasoning & independent methods
- The selected source is shin_raw; H has probability 39.0%.
- Methods disagree: largest outcome spread 16%. Confidence reduced to Low.
- Team news is unavailable; High confidence is disabled.
| Method | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings | 24.5% | 34.5% | 41.1% |
| Market · margin removed | 39.0% | 29.4% | 31.6% |
| Statistical · hierarchical Poisson | 40.7% | 32.4% | 26.9% |
Pre-match stats, form & head to head
From the original training snapshot through 2026-11-09. Averages use up to ten prior league matches.
Leganes
Scored / game: 0.80
Conceded / game: 2.20
Clean sheets: 1 / 10
Burgos
Scored / game: 1.40
Conceded / game: 0.90
Clean sheets: 3 / 10
Head to head
2026-01-31 · Burgos 2–1 Leganes
2025-11-01 · Leganes 1–2 Burgos
2024-01-22 · Leganes 2–0 Burgos
2023-10-04 · Burgos 1–0 Leganes
2023-05-12 · Burgos 0–3 Leganes
Team news & forecast record
Team news has not been verified.
Training ends: 2026-11-09
Data fingerprint: c05c9ea306ce823d189dcbd77655e675a008434e9b12bc38dc1d581b1634b7df
Model: existing-source-policy-v1