Lille vs Lens prediction
L
2026-10-30 · F1 · Kickoff 2026-10-30T20:05:00+00:00 (UTC)
What is the Lille vs Lens prediction?
Kickstatix prediction: Lille (H) at 37.0%. The double-chance call is 12 at 73.6%.
This forecast was published 2026-10-30T09:55:29+00:00 before kickoff. Probabilities express uncertainty and are not a guarantee.
Full time: 1–0
1X2 prediction: ✓ Correct
GG and total goals
Market-implied full-match picks. Results use the saved one-hour pre-kickoff quote and require a verified football score.
Unavailable
No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.
Unavailable
No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.
1 · 37.0%
Low12 · 73.6%
LowDouble chance was published at 2026-10-30T09:55:29+00:00, before kickoff.
Frozen market prediction
Locks one hour before kickoff: .
Quote captured 2026-10-30T19:03:54+00:00. 1.1 minutes before the cutoff. Record saved 2026-10-30T19:06:19+00:00.
1 · 36.3%
✓ Correct12 · 70.6%
✓ CorrectPrediction vs Market
Stale cached market data. Excluded from live comparisons.
The prices below are the latest observed market sentiment. Results are scored only against the one-hour frozen picks above.
These are post-kickoff prices and do not enter forecast performance.
| 90-minute 1X2 | Our model | Market sentiment | Market − model |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lille | 37.0% | 100.0% | N/A |
| Draw | 26.4% | 0.0% | N/A |
| Lens | 36.6% | 0.0% | N/A |
Closed or inactive market.
Activity describes trading participation, not prediction confidence. Our published baseline may use bookmaker odds. Market sentiment is excluded from model inputs.
Raw prices & normalization
For comparison, each raw price is divided by their total (100.00%). These are market prices, not factual chances of winning.
Home: 100.00% raw · Draw: 0.00% raw · Away: 0.00% raw
Probability movement · raw market prices
Changes measure market pricing, not evidence that a team will win. First available sample may be later than market opening.
Lille
Draw
Lens
All event markets · 3
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-10-30?
moneyline · Closed · Resolved
Yes: 100.0% · No: 0.0%
Volume $617.14K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 5794564Fetched 2026-11-11T12:58:32+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-31T22:14:34.633961Z
Will Lille OSC vs. Racing Club de Lens end in a draw?
moneyline · Closed · Resolved
Yes: 0.0% · No: 100.0%
Volume $43.84K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 5794568Fetched 2026-11-11T12:58:32+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-31T22:12:42.960986Z
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-10-30?
moneyline · Closed · Resolved
Yes: 0.0% · No: 100.0%
Volume $64.72K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 5794572Fetched 2026-11-11T12:58:32+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-31T22:04:27.957304Z
Historical closing observations (not scored)
Retained for research. The market results record uses the separate one-hour cutoff.
Last pre-match observation: 2026-10-30T19:59:02+00:00.
View source event ↗ · Matched by competition, both team IDs, home/away order and kickoff.
Prediction reasoning & independent methods
- The selected source is shin_raw; H has probability 37.0%.
- Independent statistical and Elo methods agree on H; largest outcome spread 10%.
- Team news is unavailable; High confidence is disabled.
| Method | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings | 37.0% | 36.5% | 26.5% |
| Market · margin removed | 37.0% | 26.4% | 36.6% |
| Statistical · hierarchical Poisson | 39.4% | 28.2% | 32.4% |
Pre-match stats, form & head to head
From the original training snapshot through 2026-10-26. Averages use up to ten prior league matches.
Lille
Scored / game: 1.20
Conceded / game: 0.80
Clean sheets: 5 / 10
Lens
Scored / game: 2.00
Conceded / game: 1.40
Clean sheets: 1 / 10
Head to head
2026-04-04 · Lille 3–0 Lens
2025-09-20 · Lens 3–0 Lille
2025-03-30 · Lille 1–0 Lens
2024-10-26 · Lens 0–2 Lille
2024-03-29 · Lille 2–1 Lens
Team news & forecast record
Team news has not been verified.
Training ends: 2026-10-26
Data fingerprint: d4b80935f50741a8d9e39ddd14165b6cd33e1b432039008fe007519391df63ea
Model: existing-source-policy-v1