Lyon vs Nice prediction
N
2026-10-18 · F1 · Kickoff 2026-10-18T18:45:00+00:00 (UTC)
What is the Lyon vs Nice prediction?
Kickstatix prediction: Lyon (H) at 57.5%. The double-chance call is 1X at 80.2%.
This forecast was published 2026-10-16T08:39:51+00:00 before kickoff. Probabilities express uncertainty and are not a guarantee.
Full time: 2–1
1X2 prediction: ✓ Correct
GG and total goals
Market-implied full-match picks. Results use the saved one-hour pre-kickoff quote and require a verified football score.
Unavailable
No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.
Unavailable
No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.
1 · 57.5%
Medium1X · 80.2%
LowDouble chance was published at 2026-10-16T08:39:51+00:00, before kickoff.
Frozen market prediction
Locks one hour before kickoff: .
Quote captured 2026-10-18T17:43:00+00:00. 2.0 minutes before the cutoff. Record saved 2026-10-18T17:45:13+00:00.
1 · 53.8%
✓ Correct1X · 78.4%
✓ CorrectPrediction vs Market
Stale cached market data. Excluded from live comparisons.
The prices below are the latest observed market sentiment. Results are scored only against the one-hour frozen picks above.
These are post-kickoff prices and do not enter forecast performance.
| 90-minute 1X2 | Our model | Market sentiment | Market − model |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lyon | 57.5% | 100.0% | N/A |
| Draw | 22.7% | 0.0% | N/A |
| Nice | 19.8% | 0.0% | N/A |
Closed or inactive market.
Activity describes trading participation, not prediction confidence. Our published baseline may use bookmaker odds. Market sentiment is excluded from model inputs.
Raw prices & normalization
For comparison, each raw price is divided by their total (100.00%). These are market prices, not factual chances of winning.
Home: 100.00% raw · Draw: 0.00% raw · Away: 0.00% raw
Probability movement · raw market prices
Changes measure market pricing, not evidence that a team will win. First available sample may be later than market opening.
Lyon
Draw
Nice
All event markets · 3
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-10-18?
moneyline · Closed · Resolved
Yes: 100.0% · No: 0.0%
Volume $2.20M · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 5311944Fetched 2026-11-10T22:42:21+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-19T21:06:57.807719Z
Will Olympique Lyonnais vs. OGC Nice end in a draw?
moneyline · Closed · Resolved
Yes: 0.0% · No: 100.0%
Volume $111.55K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 5311945Fetched 2026-11-10T22:42:21+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-19T21:04:57.643322Z
Will OGC Nice win on 2026-10-18?
moneyline · Closed · Resolved
Yes: 0.0% · No: 100.0%
Volume $121.61K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 5311948Fetched 2026-11-10T22:42:21+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-19T21:06:57.807719Z
Historical closing observations (not scored)
Retained for research. The market results record uses the separate one-hour cutoff.
Last pre-match observation: 2026-10-18T18:39:02+00:00.
View source event ↗ · Matched by competition, both team IDs, home/away order and kickoff.
Prediction reasoning & independent methods
- The selected source is shin_raw; H has probability 57.5%.
- Independent statistical and Elo methods agree on H; largest outcome spread 12%.
- Team news is unavailable; High confidence is disabled.
| Method | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings | 47.0% | 31.5% | 21.5% |
| Market · margin removed | 57.5% | 22.7% | 19.8% |
| Statistical · hierarchical Poisson | 46.0% | 25.5% | 28.6% |
Pre-match stats, form & head to head
From the original training snapshot through 2026-10-11. Averages use up to ten prior league matches.
Lyon
Scored / game: 1.90
Conceded / game: 1.40
Clean sheets: 3 / 10
Nice
Scored / game: 0.80
Conceded / game: 1.10
Clean sheets: 2 / 10
Head to head
2026-02-15 · Lyon 2–0 Nice
2025-10-18 · Nice 3–2 Lyon
2025-03-09 · Nice 0–2 Lyon
2024-12-01 · Lyon 4–1 Nice
2024-02-16 · Lyon 1–0 Nice
Team news & forecast record
Team news has not been verified.
Training ends: 2026-10-11
Data fingerprint: 406eab8aff92acaa4a0e6acb5e1dd540ae148c5858a5f6a6bdcb87671e206564
Model: existing-source-policy-v1