M'gladbach vs Hoffenheim prediction

2026-10-18 · D1 · Kickoff 2026-10-18T15:30:00+00:00 (UTC)

Generated football stadium illustration for the M'gladbach vs Hoffenheim match analysis

What is the M'gladbach vs Hoffenheim prediction?

Kickstatix prediction: Hoffenheim (A) at 46.6%. The double-chance call is 12 at 76.5%.

This forecast was published 2026-10-16T08:39:26+00:00 before kickoff. Probabilities express uncertainty and are not a guarantee.

Full time: 1–2

1X2 prediction: ✓ Correct

GG and total goals

Market-implied full-match picks. Results use the saved one-hour pre-kickoff quote and require a verified football score.

GG / NG · MARKET-IMPLIED

Unavailable

No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.

OVER / UNDER 2.5 · MARKET-IMPLIED

Unavailable

No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.

1X2

2 · 46.6%

Low

1 29.9%X 23.5%2 46.6%

Double chance

12 · 76.5%

Low

1X 53.4%X2 70.1%12 76.5%

Double chance was published at 2026-10-16T08:39:26+00:00, before kickoff.

Frozen market prediction

Locks one hour before kickoff: 2026-10-18T14:30:00+00:00.

Quote captured 2026-10-18T14:24:07+00:00. 5.9 minutes before the cutoff. Record saved 2026-10-18T14:30:12+00:00.

Market 1X2 prediction

2 · 45.3%

✓ Correct

1 31.3%2 45.3%X 23.4%

Market double chance prediction

12 · 76.6%

✓ Correct

12 76.6%1X 54.7%X2 68.7%

TWO SIGNALS. ONE MATCH.

Prediction vs Market

MARKET SENTIMENT

Stale cached market data. Excluded from live comparisons. 2026-11-11T17:32:34+00:00

The prices below are the latest observed market sentiment. Results are scored only against the one-hour frozen picks above.

These are post-kickoff prices and do not enter forecast performance.

90-minute 1X2	Our model	Market sentiment	Market − model
M'gladbach	29.9%	0.0%	N/A
Draw	23.5%	0.0%	N/A
Hoffenheim	46.6%	100.0%	N/A

Closed or inactive market.

1X2 volume$384.66K

1X2 liquidityUnavailable

Market activityUnavailable

Event open interest$235.49K

Activity describes trading participation, not prediction confidence. Our published baseline may use bookmaker odds. Market sentiment is excluded from model inputs.

Raw prices & normalization

For comparison, each raw price is divided by their total (100.00%). These are market prices, not factual chances of winning.

Home: 0.00% raw · Draw: 0.00% raw · Away: 100.00% raw

Probability movement · raw market prices

Changes measure market pricing, not evidence that a team will win. First available sample may be later than market opening.

M'gladbach

1 hourUnavailable

6 hoursUnavailable

24 hoursUnavailable

First available sample-31.0 pp31.0% → 0.0%

Draw

1 hourUnavailable

6 hoursUnavailable

24 hoursUnavailable

First available sample-25.0 pp25.0% → 0.0%

Hoffenheim

1 hourUnavailable

6 hoursUnavailable

24 hoursUnavailable

First available sample+51.0 pp49.0% → 100.0%

All event markets · 3

Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-10-18?

moneyline · Closed · Resolved

Yes: 0.0% · No: 100.0%

Volume $120.82K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 5311894
Fetched 2026-11-11T17:32:34+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-19T17:34:57.339669Z

Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim end in a draw?

moneyline · Closed · Resolved

Yes: 0.0% · No: 100.0%

Volume $52.25K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 5311896
Fetched 2026-11-11T17:32:34+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-19T17:24:57.869599Z

Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-10-18?

moneyline · Closed · Resolved

Yes: 100.0% · No: 0.0%

Volume $211.58K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 5311897
Fetched 2026-11-11T17:32:34+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-19T17:50:58.225472Z

Historical closing observations (not scored)

Retained for research. The market results record uses the separate one-hour cutoff.

Last pre-match observation: 2026-10-18T15:28:20+00:00.

View source event ↗ · Matched by competition, both team IDs, home/away order and kickoff.

Prediction reasoning & independent methods

The selected source is shin_raw; A has probability 46.6%.
Methods disagree: largest outcome spread 17%. Confidence reduced to Low.
Team news is unavailable; High confidence is disabled.

Method	1	X	2
Elo ratings	28.4%	38.4%	33.2%
Market · margin removed	29.9%	23.5%	46.6%
Statistical · hierarchical Poisson	45.0%	21.9%	33.1%

Pre-match stats, form & head to head

From the original training snapshot through 2026-10-11. Averages use up to ten prior league matches.

M'gladbach

LLLLL

Scored / game: 1.40
Conceded / game: 2.20
Clean sheets: 3 / 10

2026-10-11FC Koln (A)1–2

2026-09-19Mainz (H)3–4

2026-09-12Freiburg (A)0–5

2026-09-05Elversberg (H)3–4

2026-08-29RB Leipzig (A)0–3

Hoffenheim

LLWLL

Scored / game: 1.70
Conceded / game: 2.20
Clean sheets: 1 / 10

2026-10-10Hamburg (H)2–3

2026-09-20Paderborn (A)1–3

2026-09-12Stuttgart (H)2–1

2026-09-05Dortmund (H)2–3

2026-08-29FC Koln (A)2–3

Head to head

2026-05-16 · M'gladbach 4–0 Hoffenheim

2026-01-14 · Hoffenheim 5–1 M'gladbach

2025-05-03 · M'gladbach 4–4 Hoffenheim

2024-12-21 · Hoffenheim 1–2 M'gladbach

2024-04-20 · Hoffenheim 4–3 M'gladbach

Team news & forecast record

Team news has not been verified.

Published: 2026-10-16T08:39:26+00:00
Training ends: 2026-10-11
Data fingerprint: 5fdaaa4cd0c54a8fb1d72177af45ec30a598c85eac1d702153be00e95a148a78
Model: existing-source-policy-v1

View the complete prediction record →