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Mainz vs Werder Bremen prediction

2026-10-24 · D1 · Kickoff 2026-10-24T13:30:00+00:00 (UTC)

Generated football stadium illustration for the Mainz vs Werder Bremen match analysis

What is the Mainz vs Werder Bremen prediction?

Kickstatix prediction: Mainz (H) at 55.7%. The double-chance call is 1X at 78.7%.

This forecast was published 2026-10-23T14:09:36+00:00 before kickoff. Probabilities express uncertainty and are not a guarantee.

Full time: 2–3

1X2 prediction: ✕ Wrong

GG and total goals

Market-implied full-match picks. Results use the saved one-hour pre-kickoff quote and require a verified football score.

GG / NG · MARKET-IMPLIED

Unavailable

No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.

OVER / UNDER 2.5 · MARKET-IMPLIED

Unavailable

No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.

1X2

1 · 55.7%

Medium
1 55.7%X 23.0%2 21.3%
Double chance

1X · 78.7%

Low
1X 78.7%X2 44.3%12 77.0%

Double chance was published at 2026-10-23T14:09:36+00:00, before kickoff.

Market forecast cutoff

Locks one hour before kickoff: .

No eligible frozen forecast. No eligible market quote captured within 20 minutes before the one-hour cutoff. Excluded from market accuracy.

TWO SIGNALS. ONE MATCH.

Prediction vs Market

MARKET SENTIMENT

Market sentiment unavailable. No verified market association. Our fixture and published prediction remain available.

Prediction reasoning & independent methods
  • The selected source is shin_raw; H has probability 55.7%.
  • Independent statistical and Elo methods agree on H; largest outcome spread 14%.
  • Team news is unavailable; High confidence is disabled.
Method1X2
Elo ratings41.4%34.3%24.3%
Market · margin removed55.7%23.0%21.3%
Statistical · hierarchical Poisson50.5%23.6%25.9%
Pre-match stats, form & head to head

From the original training snapshot through 2026-10-18. Averages use up to ten prior league matches.

Mainz

WLWLW

Scored / game: 2.20
Conceded / game: 1.80
Clean sheets: 4 / 10

2026-10-17Schalke 04 (A)1–0
2026-10-10Leverkusen (H)3–4
2026-09-19M'gladbach (A)4–3
2026-09-12Ein Frankfurt (H)1–3
2026-09-06Hamburg (A)5–0

Werder Bremen

WDWDD

Scored / game: 1.40
Conceded / game: 1.90
Clean sheets: 0 / 10

2026-10-17Paderborn (H)2–2
2026-10-09Dortmund (A)2–2
2026-09-19Augsburg (H)3–2
2026-09-12FC Koln (A)1–1
2026-09-05RB Leipzig (H)3–1

Head to head

2026-03-15 · Werder Bremen 0–2 Mainz

2025-11-01 · Mainz 1–1 Werder Bremen

2025-01-31 · Werder Bremen 1–0 Mainz

2024-09-15 · Mainz 1–2 Werder Bremen

2024-02-03 · Mainz 0–1 Werder Bremen

Team news & forecast record

Team news has not been verified.

Published: 2026-10-23T14:09:36+00:00
Training ends: 2026-10-18
Data fingerprint: c8df41ec4adb8380acae10d2e7268b39dc20931c00fb0cc6dad6141ee14c799e
Model: existing-source-policy-v1

View the complete prediction record →