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Mariehamn vs Ilves prediction

2026-10-10 · FIN · Kickoff 2026-10-10T16:00:00+00:00 (UTC)

Generated football stadium illustration for the Mariehamn vs Ilves match analysis

What is the Mariehamn vs Ilves prediction?

Kickstatix prediction: Ilves (A) at 41.1%. The double-chance call is 12 at 73.6%.

This forecast was published 2026-10-09T08:12:51+00:00 before kickoff. Probabilities express uncertainty and are not a guarantee.

Full time: 1–1

1X2 prediction: ✕ Wrong

GG and total goals

Market-implied full-match picks. Results use the saved one-hour pre-kickoff quote and require a verified football score.

GG / NG · MARKET-IMPLIED

Unavailable

No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.

OVER / UNDER 2.5 · MARKET-IMPLIED

Unavailable

No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.

1X2

2 · 41.1%

Low
1 32.5%X 26.4%2 41.1%
Double chance

12 · 73.6%

Low
1X 58.9%X2 67.5%12 73.6%

Double chance was published at 2026-10-09T08:12:51+00:00, before kickoff.

Market forecast cutoff

Locks one hour before kickoff: .

No eligible frozen forecast. No eligible market quote captured within 20 minutes before the one-hour cutoff. Excluded from market accuracy.

TWO SIGNALS. ONE MATCH.

Prediction vs Market

MARKET SENTIMENT

Market sentiment unavailable. No verified market association. Our fixture and published prediction remain available.

Prediction reasoning & independent methods
  • The selected source is shin_raw; A has probability 41.1%.
  • Independent statistical and Elo methods agree on A; largest outcome spread 10%.
  • Team news is unavailable; High confidence is disabled.
Method1X2
Elo ratings23.6%33.6%42.9%
Market · margin removed32.5%26.4%41.1%
Statistical · hierarchical Poisson33.1%25.3%41.6%
Pre-match stats, form & head to head

From the original training snapshot through 2026-09-19. Averages use up to ten prior league matches.

Mariehamn

WWLWL

Scored / game: 1.20
Conceded / game: 1.40
Clean sheets: 3 / 10

2026-09-18SJK (A)1–2
2026-09-12TPS (H)1–0
2026-09-08Lahti (A)1–2
2026-08-31Jaro (H)2–0
2026-08-23KuPS (A)4–2

Ilves

LLWWW

Scored / game: 1.70
Conceded / game: 0.90
Clean sheets: 4 / 10

2026-09-19TPS (A)3–0
2026-09-12Lahti (H)3–1
2026-09-08Jaro (H)2–0
2026-08-31HJK (H)1–2
2026-08-22VPS (H)0–1

Head to head

2026-08-09 · Ilves 2–0 Mariehamn

2026-04-18 · Mariehamn 2–2 Ilves

2025-08-31 · Ilves 2–1 Mariehamn

2025-04-27 · Mariehamn 3–2 Ilves

2024-08-11 · Ilves 2–0 Mariehamn

Team news & forecast record

Team news has not been verified.

Published: 2026-10-09T08:12:51+00:00
Training ends: 2026-09-19
Data fingerprint: 3c17911e6dc06db4369edcf582f4d32999b5de89a4203c8ec7741a45bade4bb6
Model: existing-source-policy-v1

View the complete prediction record →