Milan vs Inter prediction

2026-10-31 · I1 · Kickoff 2026-10-31T19:45:00+00:00 (UTC)

Generated football stadium illustration for the Milan vs Inter match analysis

What is the Milan vs Inter prediction?

Kickstatix prediction: Inter (A) at 46.6%. The double-chance call is 12 at 75.8%.

This forecast was published 2026-10-29T20:05:00+00:00 before kickoff. Probabilities express uncertainty and are not a guarantee.

Full time: 3–1

1X2 prediction: ✕ Wrong

GG and total goals

Market-implied full-match picks. Results use the saved one-hour pre-kickoff quote and require a verified football score.

GG / NG · MARKET-IMPLIED

Unavailable

No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.

OVER / UNDER 2.5 · MARKET-IMPLIED

Unavailable

No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.

1X2

2 · 46.6%

Low

1 29.2%X 24.2%2 46.6%

Double chance

12 · 75.8%

Low

1X 53.4%X2 70.8%12 75.8%

Double chance was published at 2026-10-29T20:05:00+00:00, before kickoff.

Market forecast cutoff

Locks one hour before kickoff: 2026-10-31T18:45:00+00:00.

No eligible frozen forecast. No eligible market quote captured within 20 minutes before the one-hour cutoff. Excluded from market accuracy.

TWO SIGNALS. ONE MATCH.

Prediction vs Market

MARKET SENTIMENT

Stale cached market data. Excluded from live comparisons. 2026-11-11T09:59:03+00:00

The prices below are the latest observed market sentiment. Results are scored only against the one-hour frozen picks above.

These are post-kickoff prices and do not enter forecast performance.

90-minute 1X2	Our model	Market sentiment	Market − model
Milan	29.2%	100.0%	N/A
Draw	24.2%	0.0%	N/A
Inter	46.6%	0.0%	N/A

Closed or inactive market.

1X2 volume$1.19M

1X2 liquidityUnavailable

Market activityUnavailable

Event open interest$804.95K

Activity describes trading participation, not prediction confidence. Our published baseline may use bookmaker odds. Market sentiment is excluded from model inputs.

Raw prices & normalization

For comparison, each raw price is divided by their total (100.00%). These are market prices, not factual chances of winning.

Home: 100.00% raw · Draw: 0.00% raw · Away: 0.00% raw

Probability movement · raw market prices

Changes measure market pricing, not evidence that a team will win. First available sample may be later than market opening.

Milan

1 hourUnavailable

6 hoursUnavailable

24 hoursUnavailable

First available sample+50.5 pp49.5% → 100.0%

Draw

1 hourUnavailable

6 hoursUnavailable

24 hoursUnavailable

First available sample-50.5 pp50.5% → 0.0%

Inter

1 hourUnavailable

6 hoursUnavailable

24 hoursUnavailable

First available sample-49.5 pp49.5% → 0.0%

All event markets · 3

Will AC Milan win on 2026-10-31?

moneyline · Closed · Resolved

Yes: 100.0% · No: 0.0%

Volume $680.38K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 5843067
Fetched 2026-11-11T09:59:03+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-11-01T22:00:20.794822Z

Will AC Milan vs. FC Internazionale Milano end in a draw?

moneyline · Closed · Resolved

Yes: 0.0% · No: 100.0%

Volume $80.35K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 5843069
Fetched 2026-11-11T09:59:03+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-11-01T21:56:18.805099Z

Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-10-31?

moneyline · Closed · Resolved

Yes: 0.0% · No: 100.0%

Volume $433.27K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 5843071
Fetched 2026-11-11T09:59:03+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-11-01T21:54:18.947257Z

Historical closing observations (not scored)

Retained for research. The market results record uses the separate one-hour cutoff.

Last pre-match observation: 2026-10-31T19:35:45+00:00.

View source event ↗ · Matched by competition, both team IDs, home/away order and kickoff.

Prediction reasoning & independent methods

The selected source is hp_goals_blend_raw; A has probability 46.6%.
Independent statistical and Elo methods agree on A; largest outcome spread 12%.
Team news is unavailable; High confidence is disabled.
Fixture sourced from the market schedule; market prices are excluded from this model forecast.

Method	1	X	2
Elo ratings	24.7%	34.7%	40.5%
Statistical · hierarchical Poisson	28.2%	23.2%	48.6%

Pre-match stats, form & head to head

From the original training snapshot through 2026-10-28. Averages use up to ten prior league matches.

Milan

WDWWL

Scored / game: 1.90
Conceded / game: 1.30
Clean sheets: 3 / 10

2026-10-28Bologna (H)2–4

2026-10-25Udinese (A)2–0

2026-10-18Atalanta (H)3–2

2026-10-11Sassuolo (A)1–1

2026-09-20Lecce (H)3–0

Inter

DWWWW

Scored / game: 2.80
Conceded / game: 1.30
Clean sheets: 3 / 10

2026-10-28Venezia (A)2–0

2026-10-25Fiorentina (H)2–1

2026-10-17Bologna (A)3–1

2026-10-10Parma (H)3–0

2026-09-19Roma (A)2–2

Head to head

2026-03-08 · Milan 1–0 Inter

2025-11-23 · Inter 0–1 Milan

2025-02-02 · Milan 1–1 Inter

2024-09-22 · Inter 1–2 Milan

2024-04-22 · Milan 1–2 Inter

Team news & forecast record

Team news has not been verified.

Published: 2026-10-29T20:05:00+00:00
Training ends: 2026-10-28
Data fingerprint: b7a9a33eacfc6b37c56505aef7710baca5cb9c5e6f8515a75de4fd72add8e990
Model: existing-source-policy-v1

View the complete prediction record →