Molde vs Start prediction
S
2026-10-18 · NOR · Kickoff 2026-10-18T15:00:00+00:00 (UTC)
What is the Molde vs Start prediction?
Kickstatix prediction: Molde (H) at 71.6%. The double-chance call is 1X at 88.1%.
This forecast was published 2026-10-16T07:38:42+00:00 before kickoff. Probabilities express uncertainty and are not a guarantee.
Full time: 6–1
1X2 prediction: ✓ Correct
GG and total goals
Market-implied full-match picks. Results use the saved one-hour pre-kickoff quote and require a verified football score.
Unavailable
No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.
Unavailable
No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.
1 · 71.6%
Low1X · 88.1%
LowDouble chance was published at 2026-10-16T07:38:42+00:00, before kickoff.
Frozen market prediction
Locks one hour before kickoff: .
Quote captured 2026-10-18T13:58:05+00:00. 1.9 minutes before the cutoff. Record saved 2026-10-18T14:00:19+00:00.
1 · 73.9%
✓ Correct1X · 89.4%
✓ CorrectPrediction vs Market
Stale cached market data. Excluded from live comparisons.
The prices below are the latest observed market sentiment. Results are scored only against the one-hour frozen picks above.
These are post-kickoff prices and do not enter forecast performance.
| 90-minute 1X2 | Our model | Market sentiment | Market − model |
|---|---|---|---|
| Molde | 71.6% | 100.0% | N/A |
| Draw | 16.5% | 0.0% | N/A |
| Start | 11.9% | 0.0% | N/A |
Closed or inactive market.
Activity describes trading participation, not prediction confidence. Our published baseline may use bookmaker odds. Market sentiment is excluded from model inputs.
Raw prices & normalization
For comparison, each raw price is divided by their total (100.00%). These are market prices, not factual chances of winning.
Home: 100.00% raw · Draw: 0.00% raw · Away: 0.00% raw
Probability movement · raw market prices
Changes measure market pricing, not evidence that a team will win. First available sample may be later than market opening.
Molde
Draw
Start
All event markets · 3
Will Molde FK win on 2026-10-18?
moneyline · Closed · Resolved
Yes: 100.0% · No: 0.0%
Volume $33.40K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 5298602Fetched 2026-11-10T20:32:36+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-19T19:48:57.022333Z
Will Molde FK vs. IK Start end in a draw?
moneyline · Closed · Resolved
Yes: 0.0% · No: 100.0%
Volume $1.14K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 5298603Fetched 2026-11-10T20:32:36+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-19T16:41:23.037361Z
Will IK Start win on 2026-10-18?
moneyline · Closed · Resolved
Yes: 0.0% · No: 100.0%
Volume $23.75K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 5298604Fetched 2026-11-10T20:32:36+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-19T19:42:57.077309Z
Historical closing observations (not scored)
Retained for research. The market results record uses the separate one-hour cutoff.
Last pre-match observation: 2026-10-18T14:53:11+00:00.
View source event ↗ · Matched by competition, both team IDs, home/away order and kickoff.
Prediction reasoning & independent methods
- The selected source is shin_raw; H has probability 71.6%.
- Methods disagree: largest outcome spread 26%. Confidence reduced to Low.
- Team news is unavailable; High confidence is disabled.
| Method | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings | 53.5% | 28.3% | 18.3% |
| Market · margin removed | 71.6% | 16.5% | 11.9% |
| Statistical · hierarchical Poisson | 79.9% | 12.6% | 7.5% |
Pre-match stats, form & head to head
From the original training snapshot through 2026-10-12. Averages use up to ten prior league matches.
Molde
Scored / game: 2.60
Conceded / game: 1.90
Clean sheets: 1 / 10
Start
Scored / game: 1.10
Conceded / game: 2.00
Clean sheets: 1 / 10
Head to head
2026-04-19 · Start 1–1 Molde
2020-08-05 · Molde 5–0 Start
2020-06-24 · Start 2–3 Molde
2018-10-29 · Start 1–3 Molde
2018-05-27 · Molde 3–1 Start
Team news & forecast record
Team news has not been verified.
Training ends: 2026-10-12
Data fingerprint: c1819ac6c2e54f5a77f8889b532bf009b002f0fa58c7da913c9b1394f7643845
Model: existing-source-policy-v1