Newcastle vs Everton prediction
E
2026-11-02 · E0 · Kickoff 2026-11-02T20:00:00+00:00 (UTC)
What is the Newcastle vs Everton prediction?
Kickstatix prediction: Newcastle (H) at 42.5%. The double-chance call is 12 at 74.0%.
This forecast was published 2026-10-30T09:55:15+00:00 before kickoff. Probabilities express uncertainty and are not a guarantee.
Full time: 0–1
1X2 prediction: ✕ Wrong
GG and total goals
Market-implied full-match picks. Results use the saved one-hour pre-kickoff quote and require a verified football score.
GG · 59.5%
✕ WrongOver 2.5 · 54.5%
✕ Wrong1 · 42.5%
Low12 · 74.0%
LowDouble chance was published at 2026-10-30T09:55:15+00:00, before kickoff.
Frozen market prediction
Locks one hour before kickoff: .
Quote captured 2026-11-02T18:55:21+00:00. 4.7 minutes before the cutoff. Record saved 2026-11-02T19:00:21+00:00.
1 · 45.3%
✕ Wrong12 · 73.6%
✓ CorrectPrediction vs Market
Stale cached market data. Excluded from live comparisons.
The prices below are the latest observed market sentiment. Results are scored only against the one-hour frozen picks above.
These are post-kickoff prices and do not enter forecast performance.
| 90-minute 1X2 | Our model | Market sentiment | Market − model |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle | 42.5% | 0.0% | N/A |
| Draw | 26.0% | 0.0% | N/A |
| Everton | 31.5% | 100.0% | N/A |
Closed or inactive market.
Activity describes trading participation, not prediction confidence. Our published baseline may use bookmaker odds. Market sentiment is excluded from model inputs.
Raw prices & normalization
For comparison, each raw price is divided by their total (100.00%). These are market prices, not factual chances of winning.
Home: 0.00% raw · Draw: 0.00% raw · Away: 100.00% raw
Probability movement · raw market prices
Changes measure market pricing, not evidence that a team will win. First available sample may be later than market opening.
Newcastle
Draw
Everton
All event markets · 3
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-11-02?
moneyline · Closed · Resolved
Yes: 0.0% · No: 100.0%
Volume $1.21M · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 5957352Fetched 2026-11-11T02:54:01+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-11-03T22:16:08.410854Z
Will Newcastle United FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw?
moneyline · Closed · Resolved
Yes: 0.0% · No: 100.0%
Volume $98.21K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 5957356Fetched 2026-11-11T02:54:01+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-11-03T22:10:07.476028Z
Will Everton FC win on 2026-11-02?
moneyline · Closed · Resolved
Yes: 100.0% · No: 0.0%
Volume $601.86K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 5957363Fetched 2026-11-11T02:54:01+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-11-03T22:14:07.252595Z
Historical closing observations (not scored)
Retained for research. The market results record uses the separate one-hour cutoff.
Last pre-match observation: 2026-11-02T19:55:02+00:00.
View source event ↗ · Matched by competition, both team IDs, home/away order and kickoff.
Prediction reasoning & independent methods
- The selected source is shin_raw; H has probability 42.5%.
- Independent statistical and Elo methods agree on H; largest outcome spread 20%.
- Team news is unavailable; High confidence is disabled.
| Method | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings | 37.6% | 36.2% | 26.2% |
| Market · margin removed | 42.5% | 26.0% | 31.5% |
| Statistical · hierarchical Poisson | 57.4% | 23.8% | 18.8% |
Pre-match stats, form & head to head
From the original training snapshot through 2026-10-25. Averages use up to ten prior league matches.
Newcastle
Scored / game: 1.50
Conceded / game: 1.70
Clean sheets: 2 / 10
Everton
Scored / game: 0.90
Conceded / game: 1.30
Clean sheets: 3 / 10
Head to head
2026-02-28 · Newcastle 2–3 Everton
2025-11-29 · Everton 1–4 Newcastle
2025-05-25 · Newcastle 0–1 Everton
2024-10-05 · Everton 0–0 Newcastle
2024-04-02 · Newcastle 1–1 Everton
Team news & forecast record
Team news has not been verified.
Training ends: 2026-10-25
Data fingerprint: 4e5fc1555cf92756e31f10d0d9a4c2b0241d77509bfa5b3b8fa7130188f171a2
Model: existing-source-policy-v1