Palmeiras vs Bragantino prediction

2026-10-24 · BRA · Kickoff 2026-10-24T21:30:00+00:00 (UTC)

Generated football stadium illustration for the Palmeiras vs Bragantino match analysis

What is the Palmeiras vs Bragantino prediction?

Kickstatix prediction: Palmeiras (H) at 64.0%. The double-chance call is 1X at 86.1%.

This forecast was published 2026-10-23T11:56:52+00:00 before kickoff. Probabilities express uncertainty and are not a guarantee.

Full time: 2–0

1X2 prediction: ✓ Correct

GG and total goals

Market-implied full-match picks. Results use the saved one-hour pre-kickoff quote and require a verified football score.

GG / NG · MARKET-IMPLIED

Unavailable

No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.

OVER / UNDER 2.5 · MARKET-IMPLIED

Unavailable

No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.

1X2

1 · 64.0%

Medium

1 64.0%X 22.1%2 13.9%

Double chance

1X · 86.1%

Medium

1X 86.1%X2 36.0%12 77.9%

Double chance was published at 2026-10-23T11:56:52+00:00, before kickoff.

Frozen market prediction

Locks one hour before kickoff: 2026-10-24T20:30:00+00:00.

Quote captured 2026-10-24T20:24:06+00:00. 5.9 minutes before the cutoff. Record saved 2026-10-24T20:30:30+00:00.

Market 1X2 prediction

1 · 63.8%

✓ Correct

1 63.8%2 14.6%X 21.6%

Market double chance prediction

1X · 85.4%

✓ Correct

12 78.4%1X 85.4%X2 36.2%

TWO SIGNALS. ONE MATCH.

Prediction vs Market

MARKET SENTIMENT

Stale cached market data. Excluded from live comparisons. 2026-11-12T00:44:23+00:00

The prices below are the latest observed market sentiment. Results are scored only against the one-hour frozen picks above.

These are post-kickoff prices and do not enter forecast performance.

90-minute 1X2	Our model	Market sentiment	Market − model
Palmeiras	64.0%	100.0%	N/A
Draw	22.1%	0.0%	N/A
Bragantino	13.9%	0.0%	N/A

Closed or inactive market.

1X2 volume$145.20K

1X2 liquidityUnavailable

Market activityUnavailable

Event open interest$79.30K

Activity describes trading participation, not prediction confidence. Our published baseline may use bookmaker odds. Market sentiment is excluded from model inputs.

Raw prices & normalization

For comparison, each raw price is divided by their total (100.00%). These are market prices, not factual chances of winning.

Home: 100.00% raw · Draw: 0.00% raw · Away: 0.00% raw

Probability movement · raw market prices

Changes measure market pricing, not evidence that a team will win. First available sample may be later than market opening.

Palmeiras

1 hourUnavailable

6 hoursUnavailable

24 hoursUnavailable

First available sample+56.5 pp43.5% → 100.0%

Draw

1 hourUnavailable

6 hoursUnavailable

24 hoursUnavailable

First available sample-44.0 pp44.0% → 0.0%

Bragantino

1 hourUnavailable

6 hoursUnavailable

24 hoursUnavailable

First available sample-43.5 pp43.5% → 0.0%

All event markets · 3

Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-10-24?

moneyline · Closed · Resolved

Yes: 100.0% · No: 0.0%

Volume $98.63K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 5578481
Fetched 2026-11-12T00:44:23+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-26T01:40:48.108589Z

Will SE Palmeiras vs. Red Bull Bragantino end in a draw?

moneyline · Closed · Resolved

Yes: 0.0% · No: 100.0%

Volume $5.11K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 5578488
Fetched 2026-11-12T00:44:23+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-25T23:58:48.302127Z

Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2026-10-24?

moneyline · Closed · Resolved

Yes: 0.0% · No: 100.0%

Volume $41.47K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 5578495
Fetched 2026-11-12T00:44:23+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-26T00:28:48.814064Z

Historical closing observations (not scored)

Retained for research. The market results record uses the separate one-hour cutoff.

Last pre-match observation: 2026-10-24T21:26:52+00:00.

View source event ↗ · Matched by competition, both team IDs, home/away order and kickoff.

Prediction reasoning & independent methods

The selected source is shin_raw; H has probability 64.0%.
Independent statistical and Elo methods agree on H; largest outcome spread 10%.
Team news is unavailable; High confidence is disabled.

Method	1	X	2
Elo ratings	53.8%	28.1%	18.1%
Market · margin removed	64.0%	22.1%	13.9%
Statistical · hierarchical Poisson	59.7%	22.4%	17.9%

Pre-match stats, form & head to head

From the original training snapshot through 2026-10-20. Averages use up to ten prior league matches.

Palmeiras

WDWWW

Scored / game: 1.60
Conceded / game: 0.60
Clean sheets: 6 / 10

2026-10-17Athletico-PR (A)2–0

2026-10-11Corinthians (H)4–1

2026-10-09Bahia (H)1–0

2026-09-20Gremio (A)0–0

2026-09-12Sao Paulo (H)2–0

Bragantino

LLDWD

Scored / game: 1.30
Conceded / game: 1.40
Clean sheets: 1 / 10

2026-10-18Remo (A)1–1

2026-10-13Cruzeiro (H)4–2

2026-10-07Mirassol (H)1–1

2026-10-03Atletico-MG (A)0–1

2026-09-20Flamengo RJ (A)1–2

Head to head

2026-04-26 · Bragantino 0–1 Palmeiras

2025-10-15 · Palmeiras 5–1 Bragantino

2025-05-18 · Bragantino 1–2 Palmeiras

2024-10-05 · Bragantino 0–0 Palmeiras

2024-06-21 · Palmeiras 2–1 Bragantino

Team news & forecast record

Team news has not been verified.

Published: 2026-10-23T11:56:52+00:00
Training ends: 2026-10-20
Data fingerprint: 2d286b196b1077ac95eb79158e825d845b6dd40b7b39a2f4bd746d02aca23f61
Model: existing-source-policy-v1

View the complete prediction record →