Paris SG vs Lyon prediction

2026-10-26 · F1 · Kickoff 2026-10-26T19:30:00+00:00 (UTC)

Generated football stadium illustration for the Paris SG vs Lyon match analysis

What is the Paris SG vs Lyon prediction?

Kickstatix prediction: Paris SG (H) at 66.5%. The double-chance call is 1X at 85.5%.

This forecast was published 2026-10-23T14:09:54+00:00 before kickoff. Probabilities express uncertainty and are not a guarantee.

Full time: 2–0

1X2 prediction: ✓ Correct

GG and total goals

Market-implied full-match picks. Results use the saved one-hour pre-kickoff quote and require a verified football score.

GG / NG · MARKET-IMPLIED

Unavailable

No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.

OVER / UNDER 2.5 · MARKET-IMPLIED

Unavailable

No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.

1X2

1 · 66.5%

Medium

1 66.5%X 18.9%2 14.5%

Double chance

1X · 85.5%

Medium

1X 85.5%X2 33.5%12 81.1%

Double chance was published at 2026-10-23T14:09:54+00:00, before kickoff.

Frozen market prediction

Locks one hour before kickoff: 2026-10-26T18:30:00+00:00.

Quote captured 2026-10-26T18:27:55+00:00. 2.1 minutes before the cutoff. Record saved 2026-10-26T18:30:19+00:00.

Market 1X2 prediction

1 · 73.9%

✓ Correct

1 73.9%2 10.6%X 15.6%

Market double chance prediction

1X · 89.4%

✓ Correct

12 84.4%1X 89.4%X2 26.1%

TWO SIGNALS. ONE MATCH.

Prediction vs Market

MARKET SENTIMENT

Stale cached market data. Excluded from live comparisons. 2026-11-10T20:05:04+00:00

The prices below are the latest observed market sentiment. Results are scored only against the one-hour frozen picks above.

These are post-kickoff prices and do not enter forecast performance.

90-minute 1X2	Our model	Market sentiment	Market − model
Paris SG	66.5%	100.0%	N/A
Draw	18.9%	0.0%	N/A
Lyon	14.5%	0.0%	N/A

Closed or inactive market.

1X2 volume$1.28M

1X2 liquidityUnavailable

Market activityUnavailable

Event open interest$927.13K

Activity describes trading participation, not prediction confidence. Our published baseline may use bookmaker odds. Market sentiment is excluded from model inputs.

Raw prices & normalization

For comparison, each raw price is divided by their total (100.00%). These are market prices, not factual chances of winning.

Home: 100.00% raw · Draw: 0.00% raw · Away: 0.00% raw

Probability movement · raw market prices

Changes measure market pricing, not evidence that a team will win. First available sample may be later than market opening.

Paris SG

1 hourUnavailable

6 hoursUnavailable

24 hoursUnavailable

First available sample+31.0 pp69.0% → 100.0%

Draw

1 hourUnavailable

6 hoursUnavailable

24 hoursUnavailable

First available sample-55.0 pp55.0% → 0.0%

Lyon

1 hourUnavailable

6 hoursUnavailable

24 hoursUnavailable

First available sample-51.5 pp51.5% → 0.0%

All event markets · 3

Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-25?

moneyline · Closed · Resolved

Yes: 100.0% · No: 0.0%

Volume $785.38K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 5594302
Fetched 2026-11-10T20:05:04+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-27T21:40:17.756509Z

Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais end in a draw?

moneyline · Closed · Resolved

Yes: 0.0% · No: 100.0%

Volume $284.52K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 5594303
Fetched 2026-11-10T20:05:04+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-27T21:28:18.816071Z

Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-10-25?

moneyline · Closed · Resolved

Yes: 0.0% · No: 100.0%

Volume $214.11K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 5594305
Fetched 2026-11-10T20:05:04+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-27T21:36:18.501311Z

Historical closing observations (not scored)

Retained for research. The market results record uses the separate one-hour cutoff.

Last pre-match observation: 2026-10-26T19:29:03+00:00.

View source event ↗ · Matched by competition, both team IDs, home/away order and kickoff.

Prediction reasoning & independent methods

The selected source is shin_raw; H has probability 66.5%.
Independent statistical and Elo methods agree on H; largest outcome spread 18%.
Team news is unavailable; High confidence is disabled.

Method	1	X	2
Elo ratings	48.8%	30.6%	20.6%
Market · margin removed	66.5%	18.9%	14.5%
Statistical · hierarchical Poisson	65.8%	18.2%	16.0%

Pre-match stats, form & head to head

From the original training snapshot through 2026-10-18. Averages use up to ten prior league matches.

Paris SG

LWWWW

Scored / game: 1.80
Conceded / game: 1.10
Clean sheets: 3 / 10

2026-10-17Strasbourg (A)3–1

2026-10-10Le Mans (H)3–1

2026-09-20Marseille (A)2–1

2026-09-13Brest (A)1–0

2026-09-04Monaco (H)1–2

Lyon

WDWLW

Scored / game: 1.80
Conceded / game: 1.30
Clean sheets: 3 / 10

2026-10-18Nice (H)2–1

2026-10-09Lens (A)1–2

2026-09-19Rennes (H)4–0

2026-09-12Paris FC (A)0–0

2026-09-04Auxerre (H)3–1

Head to head

2026-04-19 · Paris SG 1–2 Lyon

2025-11-09 · Lyon 2–3 Paris SG

2025-02-23 · Lyon 2–3 Paris SG

2024-12-15 · Paris SG 3–1 Lyon

2024-04-21 · Paris SG 4–1 Lyon

Team news & forecast record

Team news has not been verified.

Published: 2026-10-23T14:09:54+00:00
Training ends: 2026-10-18
Data fingerprint: 50bb7fb51270a38e2618d0fe1fbe269a97d57977cabc6063b740a35513d1c2a9
Model: existing-source-policy-v1

View the complete prediction record →