Puebla vs Monterrey prediction

2026-10-22 · MEX · Kickoff 2026-10-22T01:00:00+00:00 (UTC)

Generated football stadium illustration for the Puebla vs Monterrey match analysis

What is the Puebla vs Monterrey prediction?

Kickstatix prediction: Monterrey (A) at 51.1%. The double-chance call is X2 at 75.9%.

This forecast was published 2026-10-20T12:08:34+00:00 before kickoff. Probabilities express uncertainty and are not a guarantee.

Full time: 1–4

1X2 prediction: ✓ Correct

GG and total goals

Market-implied full-match picks. Results use the saved one-hour pre-kickoff quote and require a verified football score.

GG / NG · MARKET-IMPLIED

Unavailable

No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.

OVER / UNDER 2.5 · MARKET-IMPLIED

Unavailable

No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.

1X2

2 · 51.1%

Low

1 24.1%X 24.8%2 51.1%

Double chance

X2 · 75.9%

Low

1X 48.9%X2 75.9%12 75.2%

Double chance was published at 2026-10-20T12:08:34+00:00, before kickoff.

Frozen market prediction

Locks one hour before kickoff: 2026-10-22T00:00:00+00:00.

Quote captured 2026-10-21T23:58:06+00:00. 1.9 minutes before the cutoff. Record saved 2026-10-22T00:00:08+00:00.

Market 1X2 prediction

2 · 53.2%

✓ Correct

1 22.4%2 53.2%X 24.4%

Market double chance prediction

X2 · 77.6%

✓ Correct

12 75.6%1X 46.8%X2 77.6%

TWO SIGNALS. ONE MATCH.

Prediction vs Market

MARKET SENTIMENT

Stale cached market data. Excluded from live comparisons. 2026-11-11T03:06:47+00:00

The prices below are the latest observed market sentiment. Results are scored only against the one-hour frozen picks above.

These are post-kickoff prices and do not enter forecast performance.

90-minute 1X2	Our model	Market sentiment	Market − model
Puebla	24.1%	0.0%	N/A
Draw	24.8%	0.0%	N/A
Monterrey	51.1%	100.0%	N/A

Closed or inactive market.

1X2 volume$365.30K

1X2 liquidityUnavailable

Market activityUnavailable

Event open interest$338.03K

Activity describes trading participation, not prediction confidence. Our published baseline may use bookmaker odds. Market sentiment is excluded from model inputs.

Raw prices & normalization

For comparison, each raw price is divided by their total (100.00%). These are market prices, not factual chances of winning.

Home: 0.00% raw · Draw: 0.00% raw · Away: 100.00% raw

Probability movement · raw market prices

Changes measure market pricing, not evidence that a team will win. First available sample may be later than market opening.

Puebla

1 hourUnavailable

6 hoursUnavailable

24 hoursUnavailable

First available sample-49.0 pp49.0% → 0.0%

Draw

1 hourUnavailable

6 hoursUnavailable

24 hoursUnavailable

First available sample-50.0 pp50.0% → 0.0%

Monterrey

1 hourUnavailable

6 hoursUnavailable

24 hoursUnavailable

First available sample+51.0 pp49.0% → 100.0%

All event markets · 3

Will Club Puebla win on 2026-10-21?

moneyline · Closed · Resolved

Yes: 0.0% · No: 100.0%

Volume $80.33K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 5433492
Fetched 2026-11-11T03:06:47+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-23T02:24:15.954038Z

Will Club Puebla vs. CF Monterrey end in a draw?

moneyline · Closed · Resolved

Yes: 0.0% · No: 100.0%

Volume $9.52K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 5433493
Fetched 2026-11-11T03:06:47+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-23T04:46:17.762719Z

Will CF Monterrey win on 2026-10-21?

moneyline · Closed · Resolved

Yes: 100.0% · No: 0.0%

Volume $275.46K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 5433494
Fetched 2026-11-11T03:06:47+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-23T03:52:17.632456Z

Historical closing observations (not scored)

Retained for research. The market results record uses the separate one-hour cutoff.

Last pre-match observation: 2026-10-22T00:56:39+00:00.

View source event ↗ · Matched by competition, both team IDs, home/away order and kickoff.

Prediction reasoning & independent methods

The selected source is shin_raw; A has probability 51.1%.
Independent statistical and Elo methods agree on A; largest outcome spread 11%.
Team news is unavailable; High confidence is disabled.

Method	1	X	2
Elo ratings	24.8%	34.8%	40.5%
Market · margin removed	24.1%	24.8%	51.1%
Statistical · hierarchical Poisson	30.0%	25.9%	44.1%

Pre-match stats, form & head to head

From the original training snapshot through 2026-10-19. Averages use up to ten prior league matches.

Puebla

LDLDD

Scored / game: 1.00
Conceded / game: 1.10
Clean sheets: 2 / 10

2026-10-17Club Tijuana (A)0–0

2026-10-10Club Leon (H)1–1

2026-09-27Tigres UANL (A)0–1

2026-09-19Atlante (H)1–1

2026-09-16Toluca (H)0–1

Monterrey

DWLDW

Scored / game: 1.60
Conceded / game: 1.40
Clean sheets: 3 / 10

2026-10-19Pachuca (H)2–1

2026-10-11Club America (A)1–1

2026-09-26Atlante (A)2–4

2026-09-20Cruz Azul (H)1–0

2026-09-13Tigres UANL (H)0–0

Head to head

2026-04-22 · Monterrey 2–1 Puebla

2025-08-30 · Puebla 2–4 Monterrey

2025-01-13 · Monterrey 1–1 Puebla

2024-08-17 · Puebla 1–2 Monterrey

2024-01-14 · Monterrey 2–0 Puebla

Team news & forecast record

Team news has not been verified.

Published: 2026-10-20T12:08:34+00:00
Training ends: 2026-10-19
Data fingerprint: 6e7760e599bdbad62e94d194cf5825614d7dc1d6add4d638d57df86e31fedeb3
Model: existing-source-policy-v1

View the complete prediction record →