RSL

Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes prediction

SJE

2026-10-15 · USA · Kickoff 2026-10-15T01:30:00+00:00 (UTC)

Generated football stadium illustration for the Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes match analysis

What is the Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes prediction?

Kickstatix prediction: Real Salt Lake (H) at 51.6%. The double-chance call is 12 at 76.2%.

This forecast was published 2026-10-08T01:36:37+00:00 before kickoff. Probabilities express uncertainty and are not a guarantee.

Full time: 1–1

1X2 prediction: ✕ Wrong

GG and total goals

Market-implied full-match picks. Results use the saved one-hour pre-kickoff quote and require a verified football score.

GG / NG · MARKET-IMPLIED

Unavailable

No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.

OVER / UNDER 2.5 · MARKET-IMPLIED

Unavailable

No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.

1X2

1 · 51.6%

Low

1 51.6%X 23.8%2 24.6%

Double chance

12 · 76.2%

Low

1X 75.4%X2 48.4%12 76.2%

Double chance was published at 2026-10-08T01:36:37+00:00, before kickoff.

Frozen market prediction

Locks one hour before kickoff: 2026-10-15T00:30:00+00:00.

Quote captured 2026-10-15T00:29:28+00:00. 0.5 minutes before the cutoff. Record saved 2026-10-15T00:30:07+00:00.

Market 1X2 prediction

1 · 48.5%

✕ Wrong

1 48.5%2 27.5%X 24.0%

Market double chance prediction

12 · 76.0%

✕ Wrong

12 76.0%1X 72.5%X2 51.5%

TWO SIGNALS. ONE MATCH.

Prediction vs Market

MARKET SENTIMENT

Stale cached market data. Excluded from live comparisons. 2026-11-14T18:55:48+00:00

The prices below are the latest observed market sentiment. Results are scored only against the one-hour frozen picks above.

These are post-kickoff prices and do not enter forecast performance.

90-minute 1X2	Our model	Market sentiment	Market − model
Real Salt Lake	51.6%	0.0%	N/A
Draw	23.8%	100.0%	N/A
San Jose Earthquakes	24.6%	0.0%	N/A

Closed or inactive market.

1X2 volume$421.14K

1X2 liquidityUnavailable

Market activityUnavailable

Event open interest$18.54K

Activity describes trading participation, not prediction confidence. Our published baseline may use bookmaker odds. Market sentiment is excluded from model inputs.

Raw prices & normalization

For comparison, each raw price is divided by their total (100.00%). These are market prices, not factual chances of winning.

Home: 0.00% raw · Draw: 100.00% raw · Away: 0.00% raw

Probability movement · raw market prices

Changes measure market pricing, not evidence that a team will win. First available sample may be later than market opening.

Real Salt Lake

1 hourUnavailable

6 hoursUnavailable

24 hoursUnavailable

First available sample-49.0 pp49.0% → 0.0%

Draw

1 hourUnavailable

6 hoursUnavailable

24 hoursUnavailable

First available sample+50.0 pp50.0% → 100.0%

San Jose Earthquakes

1 hourUnavailable

6 hoursUnavailable

24 hoursUnavailable

First available sample-49.0 pp49.0% → 0.0%

All event markets · 3

Will Real Salt Lake win on 2026-10-14?

moneyline · Closed · Resolved

Yes: 0.0% · No: 100.0%

Volume $348.09K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 5179349
Fetched 2026-11-14T18:55:48+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-16T04:11:18.538185Z

Will Real Salt Lake vs. San Jose Earthquakes end in a draw?

moneyline · Closed · Resolved

Yes: 100.0% · No: 0.0%

Volume $17.44K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 5179350
Fetched 2026-11-14T18:55:48+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-16T03:41:20.581433Z

Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-10-14?

moneyline · Closed · Resolved

Yes: 0.0% · No: 100.0%

Volume $55.61K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 5179351
Fetched 2026-11-14T18:55:48+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-16T03:35:20.192007Z

Historical closing observations (not scored)

Retained for research. The market results record uses the separate one-hour cutoff.

Last pre-match observation: 2026-10-15T01:25:58+00:00.

View source event ↗ · Matched by competition, both team IDs, home/away order and kickoff.

Prediction reasoning & independent methods

The selected source is hp_goals_blend_raw; H has probability 51.6%.
Methods disagree: largest outcome spread 23%. Confidence reduced to Low.
Team news is unavailable; High confidence is disabled.
Fixture sourced from the market schedule; market prices are excluded from this model forecast.

Method	1	X	2
Elo ratings	31.1%	39.5%	29.5%
Statistical · hierarchical Poisson	54.6%	22.7%	22.7%

Pre-match stats, form & head to head

From the original training snapshot through 2026-10-02. Averages use up to ten prior league matches.

Real Salt Lake

LLLLW

Scored / game: 1.10
Conceded / game: 1.90
Clean sheets: 1 / 10

2026-09-27New England Revolution (H)3–0

2026-09-24Seattle Sounders (A)0–2

2026-09-20Vancouver Whitecaps (H)0–3

2026-09-13New York City (H)0–2

2026-09-10Houston Dynamo (A)1–2

San Jose Earthquakes

DWWDW

Scored / game: 1.40
Conceded / game: 1.90
Clean sheets: 2 / 10

2026-09-27Portland Timbers (H)3–1

2026-09-20Los Angeles FC (H)2–2

2026-09-13Houston Dynamo (H)1–0

2026-09-10San Diego FC (A)3–2

2026-09-06Austin FC (A)1–1

Head to head

2025-07-27 · Real Salt Lake 2–1 San Jose Earthquakes

2025-02-23 · San Jose Earthquakes 4–0 Real Salt Lake

2024-10-06 · San Jose Earthquakes 0–1 Real Salt Lake

2024-08-25 · Real Salt Lake 0–2 San Jose Earthquakes

2023-09-17 · San Jose Earthquakes 2–1 Real Salt Lake

Team news & forecast record

Team news has not been verified.

Published: 2026-10-08T01:36:37+00:00
Training ends: 2026-10-02
Data fingerprint: 60f6dc102b4b88d8ba8ef57719b8a4fe7977420aa0a9a3d7b26280fd83c32f7d
Model: existing-source-policy-v1

View the complete prediction record →