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Rochdale vs Swindon prediction

2026-10-03 · E3 · Kickoff 2026-10-03T14:00:00+00:00 (UTC)

Generated football stadium illustration for the Rochdale vs Swindon match analysis

What is the Rochdale vs Swindon prediction?

Kickstatix prediction: Rochdale (H) at 42.5%. The double-chance call is 12 at 74.0%.

This forecast was published 2026-10-02T09:18:34+00:00 before kickoff. Probabilities express uncertainty and are not a guarantee.

Full time: 1–0

1X2 prediction: ✓ Correct

GG and total goals

Market-implied full-match picks. Results use the saved one-hour pre-kickoff quote and require a verified football score.

GG / NG · MARKET-IMPLIED

Unavailable

No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.

OVER / UNDER 2.5 · MARKET-IMPLIED

Unavailable

No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.

1X2

1 · 42.5%

Low
1 42.5%X 26.0%2 31.5%
Double chance

12 · 74.0%

Low
1X 68.5%X2 57.5%12 74.0%

Double chance was published at 2026-10-02T09:18:34+00:00, before kickoff.

Market forecast cutoff

Locks one hour before kickoff: .

No eligible frozen forecast. No eligible market quote captured within 20 minutes before the one-hour cutoff. Excluded from market accuracy.

TWO SIGNALS. ONE MATCH.

Prediction vs Market

MARKET SENTIMENT

Market sentiment unavailable. No verified market association. Our fixture and published prediction remain available.

Prediction reasoning & independent methods
  • The selected source is shin_raw; H has probability 42.5%.
  • Methods disagree: largest outcome spread 15%. Confidence reduced to Low.
  • Team news is unavailable; High confidence is disabled.
Method1X2
Elo ratings28.0%38.0%34.1%
Market · margin removed42.5%26.0%31.5%
Statistical · hierarchical Poisson30.3%24.6%45.1%
Pre-match stats, form & head to head

From the original training snapshot through 2026-09-26. Averages use up to ten prior league matches.

Rochdale

WLDWW

Scored / game: 1.40
Conceded / game: 1.30
Clean sheets: 3 / 10

2026-09-26Fleetwood Town (A)2–1
2026-09-19Oldham (H)2–0
2026-09-12Walsall (A)0–0
2026-09-05Gillingham (H)1–4
2026-09-01Shrewsbury (H)3–0

Swindon

WWLLD

Scored / game: 1.00
Conceded / game: 1.80
Clean sheets: 1 / 10

2026-09-26Accrington (H)1–1
2026-09-19Salford (A)0–1
2026-09-12York (A)0–4
2026-09-05Colchester (H)3–1
2026-09-01Port Vale (H)3–1

Head to head

2023-03-18 · Rochdale 4–4 Swindon

2022-08-20 · Swindon 3–0 Rochdale

Team news & forecast record

Team news has not been verified.

Published: 2026-10-02T09:18:34+00:00
Training ends: 2026-09-26
Data fingerprint: ab661affba5bcd8769bf8a316072826a7a6fb7ae508afc15510eb6c0163c5bb2
Model: existing-source-policy-v1

View the complete prediction record →