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San Lorenzo vs Dep. Riestra prediction

2026-10-11 · ARG · Kickoff 2026-10-11T17:45:00+00:00 (UTC)

Generated football stadium illustration for the San Lorenzo vs Dep. Riestra match analysis

What is the San Lorenzo vs Dep. Riestra prediction?

Kickstatix prediction: Draw (D) at 34.1%. The double-chance call is 1X at 71.8%.

This forecast was published 2026-10-09T08:12:35+00:00 before kickoff. Probabilities express uncertainty and are not a guarantee.

Full time: 1–0

1X2 prediction: ✕ Wrong

GG and total goals

Market-implied full-match picks. Results use the saved one-hour pre-kickoff quote and require a verified football score.

GG / NG · MARKET-IMPLIED

Unavailable

No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.

OVER / UNDER 2.5 · MARKET-IMPLIED

Unavailable

No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.

1X2

X · 34.1%

Low
1 37.7%X 34.1%2 28.2%
Double chance

1X · 71.8%

Low
1X 71.8%X2 62.3%12 65.9%

Double chance was published at 2026-10-09T08:12:35+00:00, before kickoff.

Market forecast cutoff

Locks one hour before kickoff: .

No eligible frozen forecast. No eligible market quote captured within 20 minutes before the one-hour cutoff. Excluded from market accuracy.

TWO SIGNALS. ONE MATCH.

Prediction vs Market

MARKET SENTIMENT

Market sentiment unavailable. No verified market association. Our fixture and published prediction remain available.

Prediction reasoning & independent methods
  • The selected source is shin_raw; D has probability 34.1%.
  • The existing decision policy selects a draw in this close match; the published pick differs from the largest probability.
  • Methods disagree: largest outcome spread 5%. Confidence reduced to Low.
  • Team news is unavailable; High confidence is disabled.
Method1X2
Elo ratings38.7%35.6%25.6%
Market · margin removed37.7%34.1%28.2%
Statistical · hierarchical Poisson42.4%34.8%22.8%
Pre-match stats, form & head to head

From the original training snapshot through 2026-10-06. Averages use up to ten prior league matches.

San Lorenzo

LWDLL

Scored / game: 0.40
Conceded / game: 1.00
Clean sheets: 4 / 10

2026-10-03Defensa y Justicia (A)0–3
2026-09-20Boca Juniors (H)0–2
2026-09-13Independiente (A)1–1
2026-09-05Talleres Cordoba (H)1–0
2026-09-01Instituto (A)0–1

Dep. Riestra

DDLDD

Scored / game: 0.60
Conceded / game: 1.10
Clean sheets: 3 / 10

2026-10-05Central Cordoba (H)1–1
2026-09-19Gimnasia Mendoza (A)0–0
2026-09-14Lanus (H)0–3
2026-09-04Platense (A)1–1
2026-08-29Velez Sarsfield (H)1–1

Head to head

2026-03-25 · Dep. Riestra 1–1 San Lorenzo

2025-10-31 · San Lorenzo 1–0 Dep. Riestra

2025-04-20 · Dep. Riestra 0–0 San Lorenzo

2024-05-12 · Dep. Riestra 1–0 San Lorenzo

Team news & forecast record

Team news has not been verified.

Published: 2026-10-09T08:12:35+00:00
Training ends: 2026-10-06
Data fingerprint: 559dac64fdcbc69d3541e7359be5386f251944b6dac22921b9bc9f319096f0b0
Model: existing-source-policy-v1

View the complete prediction record →