Sandefjord vs Molde prediction
M
2026-11-08 · NOR · Kickoff 2026-11-08T16:00:00+00:00 (UTC)
What is the Sandefjord vs Molde prediction?
Kickstatix prediction: Molde (A) at 55.4%. The double-chance call is 12 at 78.9%.
This forecast was published 2026-11-06T10:21:31+00:00 before kickoff. Probabilities express uncertainty and are not a guarantee.
Full time: 5–5
1X2 prediction: ✕ Wrong
GG and total goals
Market-implied full-match picks. Results use the saved one-hour pre-kickoff quote and require a verified football score.
Unavailable
No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.
Unavailable
No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.
2 · 55.4%
Low12 · 78.9%
LowDouble chance was published at 2026-11-06T10:21:31+00:00, before kickoff.
Frozen market prediction
Locks one hour before kickoff: .
Quote captured 2026-11-08T14:55:00+00:00. 5.0 minutes before the cutoff. Record saved 2026-11-08T15:00:07+00:00.
2 · 49.7%
✕ Wrong12 · 78.4%
✕ WrongPrediction vs Market
Stale cached market data. Excluded from live comparisons.
The prices below are the latest observed market sentiment. Results are scored only against the one-hour frozen picks above.
These are post-kickoff prices and do not enter forecast performance.
| 90-minute 1X2 | Our model | Market sentiment | Market − model |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sandefjord | 23.5% | 0.0% | N/A |
| Draw | 21.1% | 100.0% | N/A |
| Molde | 55.4% | 0.0% | N/A |
Closed or inactive market.
Activity describes trading participation, not prediction confidence. Our published baseline may use bookmaker odds. Market sentiment is excluded from model inputs.
Raw prices & normalization
For comparison, each raw price is divided by their total (100.00%). These are market prices, not factual chances of winning.
Home: 0.00% raw · Draw: 100.00% raw · Away: 0.00% raw
Probability movement · raw market prices
Changes measure market pricing, not evidence that a team will win. First available sample may be later than market opening.
Sandefjord
Draw
Molde
All event markets · 3
Will Sandefjord Fotball win on 2026-11-08?
moneyline · Closed · Resolved
Yes: 0.0% · No: 100.0%
Volume $14.40K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 6220601Fetched 2026-11-11T08:00:08+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-11-09T18:06:31.418339Z
Will Sandefjord Fotball vs. Molde FK end in a draw?
moneyline · Closed · Resolved
Yes: 100.0% · No: 0.0%
Volume $6.28K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 6220602Fetched 2026-11-11T08:00:08+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-11-09T18:02:31.516902Z
Will Molde FK win on 2026-11-08?
moneyline · Closed · Resolved
Yes: 0.0% · No: 100.0%
Volume $36.57K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 6220603Fetched 2026-11-11T08:00:08+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-11-09T18:36:28.712377Z
Historical closing observations (not scored)
Retained for research. The market results record uses the separate one-hour cutoff.
Last pre-match observation: 2026-11-08T15:53:15+00:00.
View source event ↗ · Matched by competition, both team IDs, home/away order and kickoff.
Prediction reasoning & independent methods
- The selected source is shin_raw; A has probability 55.4%.
- Methods disagree: largest outcome spread 23%. Confidence reduced to Low.
- Team news is unavailable; High confidence is disabled.
| Method | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings | 28.6% | 38.6% | 32.8% |
| Market · margin removed | 23.5% | 21.1% | 55.4% |
| Statistical · hierarchical Poisson | 23.9% | 21.9% | 54.2% |
Pre-match stats, form & head to head
From the original training snapshot through 2026-11-01. Averages use up to ten prior league matches.
Sandefjord
Scored / game: 1.30
Conceded / game: 1.30
Clean sheets: 2 / 10
Molde
Scored / game: 3.10
Conceded / game: 1.70
Clean sheets: 1 / 10
Head to head
2026-05-30 · Molde 2–1 Sandefjord
2025-10-19 · Molde 1–3 Sandefjord
2025-04-06 · Sandefjord 3–0 Molde
2024-10-19 · Molde 0–1 Sandefjord
2024-05-05 · Sandefjord 3–1 Molde
Team news & forecast record
Team news has not been verified.
Training ends: 2026-11-01
Data fingerprint: 3212df28621a4aae9aed1c8be8ab0f80fcbaf197946fdad690be68888bb74241
Model: existing-source-policy-v1