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Sao Paulo vs Vasco prediction

2026-10-18 · BRA · Kickoff 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00 (UTC)

Generated football stadium illustration for the Sao Paulo vs Vasco match analysis

What is the Sao Paulo vs Vasco prediction?

Kickstatix prediction: Sao Paulo (H) at 47.5%. The double-chance call is 1X at 74.9%.

This forecast was published 2026-10-16T07:38:14+00:00 before kickoff. Probabilities express uncertainty and are not a guarantee.

Full time: 1–0

1X2 prediction: ✓ Correct

GG and total goals

Market-implied full-match picks. Results use the saved one-hour pre-kickoff quote and require a verified football score.

GG / NG · MARKET-IMPLIED

Unavailable

No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.

OVER / UNDER 2.5 · MARKET-IMPLIED

Unavailable

No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.

1X2

1 · 47.5%

Low
1 47.5%X 27.4%2 25.1%
Double chance

1X · 74.9%

Low
1X 74.9%X2 52.5%12 72.6%

Double chance was published at 2026-10-16T07:38:14+00:00, before kickoff.

Market forecast cutoff

Locks one hour before kickoff: .

No eligible frozen forecast. No eligible market quote captured within 20 minutes before the one-hour cutoff. Excluded from market accuracy.

TWO SIGNALS. ONE MATCH.

Prediction vs Market

MARKET SENTIMENT

Market sentiment unavailable. No verified market association. Our fixture and published prediction remain available.

Prediction reasoning & independent methods
  • The selected source is shin_raw; H has probability 47.5%.
  • Methods disagree: largest outcome spread 22%. Confidence reduced to Low.
  • Team news is unavailable; High confidence is disabled.
Method1X2
Elo ratings36.6%36.7%26.7%
Market · margin removed47.5%27.4%25.1%
Statistical · hierarchical Poisson58.2%24.0%17.9%
Pre-match stats, form & head to head

From the original training snapshot through 2026-10-13. Averages use up to ten prior league matches.

Sao Paulo

LWLLW

Scored / game: 1.00
Conceded / game: 1.20
Clean sheets: 2 / 10

2026-10-11Vitoria (H)2–1
2026-10-08Cruzeiro (A)0–2
2026-10-03Santos (H)1–2
2026-09-20Internacional (H)1–0
2026-09-12Palmeiras (A)0–2

Vasco

LWWWD

Scored / game: 1.40
Conceded / game: 1.20
Clean sheets: 3 / 10

2026-10-10Remo (H)0–0
2026-10-08Botafogo RJ (A)2–1
2026-09-20Coritiba (H)5–0
2026-09-12Gremio (A)2–1
2026-09-06Fluminense (A)0–1

Head to head

2026-04-18 · Vasco 2–1 Sao Paulo

2025-11-02 · Vasco 0–2 Sao Paulo

2025-06-13 · Sao Paulo 1–3 Vasco

2024-10-17 · Sao Paulo 3–0 Vasco

2024-06-23 · Vasco 4–1 Sao Paulo

Team news & forecast record

Team news has not been verified.

Published: 2026-10-16T07:38:14+00:00
Training ends: 2026-10-13
Data fingerprint: c961dbf47739f593e90c40c7edd255e9902c0a280a1e47b83e0eb5fe23cbc880
Model: existing-source-policy-v1

View the complete prediction record →