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Sarpsborg 08 vs Aalesund prediction

2026-10-25 · NOR · Kickoff 2026-10-25T17:00:00+00:00 (UTC)

Generated football stadium illustration for the Sarpsborg 08 vs Aalesund match analysis

What is the Sarpsborg 08 vs Aalesund prediction?

Kickstatix prediction: Sarpsborg 08 (H) at 51.5%. The double-chance call is 12 at 77.1%.

This forecast was published 2026-10-23T11:57:16+00:00 before kickoff. Probabilities express uncertainty and are not a guarantee.

Full time: 2–1

1X2 prediction: ✓ Correct

GG and total goals

Market-implied full-match picks. Results use the saved one-hour pre-kickoff quote and require a verified football score.

GG / NG · MARKET-IMPLIED

Unavailable

No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.

OVER / UNDER 2.5 · MARKET-IMPLIED

Unavailable

No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.

1X2

1 · 51.5%

Low
1 51.5%X 22.9%2 25.6%
Double chance

12 · 77.1%

Low
1X 74.4%X2 48.5%12 77.1%

Double chance was published at 2026-10-23T11:57:16+00:00, before kickoff.

Market forecast cutoff

Locks one hour before kickoff: .

No eligible frozen forecast. No eligible market quote captured within 20 minutes before the one-hour cutoff. Excluded from market accuracy.

TWO SIGNALS. ONE MATCH.

Prediction vs Market

MARKET SENTIMENT

Market sentiment unavailable. No verified market association. Our fixture and published prediction remain available.

Prediction reasoning & independent methods
  • The selected source is shin_raw; H has probability 51.5%.
  • Independent statistical and Elo methods agree on H; largest outcome spread 11%.
  • Team news is unavailable; High confidence is disabled.
Method1X2
Elo ratings46.1%31.9%21.9%
Market · margin removed51.5%22.9%25.6%
Statistical · hierarchical Poisson56.7%21.7%21.6%
Pre-match stats, form & head to head

From the original training snapshot through 2026-10-18. Averages use up to ten prior league matches.

Sarpsborg 08

DDLWL

Scored / game: 1.40
Conceded / game: 1.80
Clean sheets: 2 / 10

2026-10-18Rosenborg (H)0–3
2026-10-11Aalesund (A)4–2
2026-09-18KFUM Oslo (H)1–3
2026-09-13Fredrikstad (A)1–1
2026-09-06Valerenga (H)2–2

Aalesund

WLWLW

Scored / game: 2.10
Conceded / game: 2.30
Clean sheets: 1 / 10

2026-10-17Kristiansund (A)4–1
2026-10-11Sarpsborg 08 (H)2–4
2026-09-19Molde (A)2–1
2026-09-13KFUM Oslo (A)1–2
2026-09-04Start (H)2–0

Head to head

2026-10-11 · Aalesund 2–4 Sarpsborg 08

2023-10-22 · Aalesund 3–2 Sarpsborg 08

2023-05-29 · Sarpsborg 08 3–1 Aalesund

2022-09-11 · Aalesund 1–3 Sarpsborg 08

2022-05-22 · Sarpsborg 08 1–2 Aalesund

Team news & forecast record

Team news has not been verified.

Published: 2026-10-23T11:57:16+00:00
Training ends: 2026-10-18
Data fingerprint: 03f7438cd147ea88173e86d11a59d4454875ba4b759449de5a77ecfc7697c0cc
Model: existing-source-policy-v1

View the complete prediction record →