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St Pauli vs Karlsruhe prediction

2026-10-11 · D2 · Kickoff 2026-10-11T11:30:00+00:00 (UTC)

Generated football stadium illustration for the St Pauli vs Karlsruhe match analysis

What is the St Pauli vs Karlsruhe prediction?

Kickstatix prediction: St Pauli (H) at 55.7%. The double-chance call is 1X at 78.0%.

This forecast was published 2026-10-09T10:14:15+00:00 before kickoff. Probabilities express uncertainty and are not a guarantee.

Full time: 2–0

1X2 prediction: ✓ Correct

GG and total goals

Market-implied full-match picks. Results use the saved one-hour pre-kickoff quote and require a verified football score.

GG / NG · MARKET-IMPLIED

Unavailable

No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.

OVER / UNDER 2.5 · MARKET-IMPLIED

Unavailable

No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.

1X2

1 · 55.7%

Medium
1 55.7%X 22.3%2 22.0%
Double chance

1X · 78.0%

Medium
1X 78.0%X2 44.3%12 77.7%

Double chance was published at 2026-10-09T10:14:15+00:00, before kickoff.

Market forecast cutoff

Locks one hour before kickoff: .

No eligible frozen forecast. No eligible market quote captured within 20 minutes before the one-hour cutoff. Excluded from market accuracy.

TWO SIGNALS. ONE MATCH.

Prediction vs Market

MARKET SENTIMENT

Market sentiment unavailable. No verified market association. Our fixture and published prediction remain available.

Prediction reasoning & independent methods
  • The selected source is shin_raw; H has probability 55.7%.
  • Independent statistical and Elo methods agree on H; largest outcome spread 9%.
  • Team news is unavailable; High confidence is disabled.
Method1X2
Elo ratings48.2%30.9%20.9%
Market · margin removed55.7%22.3%22.0%
Statistical · hierarchical Poisson57.1%21.6%21.3%
Pre-match stats, form & head to head

From the original training snapshot through 2026-09-20. Averages use up to ten prior league matches.

St Pauli

DLDWD

Scored / game: 1.40
Conceded / game: 1.10
Clean sheets: 2 / 10

2026-09-20Cottbus (A)1–1
2026-09-12Wolfsburg (H)1–0
2026-09-04Bielefeld (A)2–2
2026-08-30Kaiserslautern (H)1–2
2026-08-14Holstein Kiel (A)2–2

Karlsruhe

DLDLL

Scored / game: 1.20
Conceded / game: 2.00
Clean sheets: 1 / 10

2026-09-19Nurnberg (H)0–1
2026-09-13Cottbus (H)0–3
2026-09-04Hannover (A)2–2
2026-08-29Wolfsburg (H)2–5
2026-08-15Kaiserslautern (A)0–0

Head to head

2024-04-06 · Karlsruhe 2–1 St Pauli

2023-10-28 · St Pauli 2–1 Karlsruhe

2023-05-28 · St Pauli 1–1 Karlsruhe

2022-11-12 · Karlsruhe 4–4 St Pauli

Team news & forecast record

Team news has not been verified.

Published: 2026-10-09T10:14:15+00:00
Training ends: 2026-09-20
Data fingerprint: 443d77a6896da057be1402a08846c488319a808c7bc382a2908bb83082c5db05
Model: existing-source-policy-v1

View the complete prediction record →