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Stoke vs Middlesbrough prediction

2026-10-13 · E1 · Kickoff 2026-10-13T19:00:00+00:00 (UTC)

Generated football stadium illustration for the Stoke vs Middlesbrough match analysis

What is the Stoke vs Middlesbrough prediction?

Kickstatix prediction: Middlesbrough (A) at 47.3%. The double-chance call is 12 at 74.1%.

This forecast was published 2026-10-13T10:07:31+00:00 before kickoff. Probabilities express uncertainty and are not a guarantee.

Full time: 2–3

1X2 prediction: ✓ Correct

GG and total goals

Market-implied full-match picks. Results use the saved one-hour pre-kickoff quote and require a verified football score.

GG / NG · MARKET-IMPLIED

Unavailable

No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.

OVER / UNDER 2.5 · MARKET-IMPLIED

Unavailable

No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.

1X2

2 · 47.3%

Low
1 26.8%X 25.9%2 47.3%
Double chance

12 · 74.1%

Low
1X 52.7%X2 73.2%12 74.1%

Double chance was published at 2026-10-13T10:07:31+00:00, before kickoff.

Market forecast cutoff

Locks one hour before kickoff: .

No eligible frozen forecast. No eligible market quote captured within 20 minutes before the one-hour cutoff. Excluded from market accuracy.

TWO SIGNALS. ONE MATCH.

Prediction vs Market

MARKET SENTIMENT

Market sentiment unavailable. No verified market association. Our fixture and published prediction remain available.

Prediction reasoning & independent methods
  • The selected source is shin_raw; A has probability 47.3%.
  • Independent statistical and Elo methods agree on A; largest outcome spread 10%.
  • Team news is unavailable; High confidence is disabled.
Method1X2
Elo ratings26.2%36.2%37.5%
Market · margin removed26.8%25.9%47.3%
Statistical · hierarchical Poisson31.8%26.3%41.8%
Pre-match stats, form & head to head

From the original training snapshot through 2026-10-11. Averages use up to ten prior league matches.

Stoke

WDWWW

Scored / game: 1.50
Conceded / game: 1.50
Clean sheets: 2 / 10

2026-10-10Bolton (A)2–1
2026-09-19Sheffield United (H)2–1
2026-09-12Watford (A)2–1
2026-09-08Cardiff (A)1–1
2026-09-05Charlton (H)4–0

Middlesbrough

WWDDW

Scored / game: 1.90
Conceded / game: 1.40
Clean sheets: 2 / 10

2026-10-10Wolves (H)1–0
2026-09-19Birmingham (A)2–2
2026-09-15Millwall (H)2–2
2026-09-12Norwich (H)4–3
2026-09-05QPR (A)1–0

Head to head

2026-01-21 · Stoke 1–2 Middlesbrough

2025-09-30 · Middlesbrough 0–0 Stoke

2025-02-25 · Stoke 1–3 Middlesbrough

2024-09-28 · Middlesbrough 2–0 Stoke

2024-03-02 · Stoke 2–0 Middlesbrough

Team news & forecast record

Team news has not been verified.

Published: 2026-10-13T10:07:31+00:00
Training ends: 2026-10-11
Data fingerprint: a32257d99570ec0cef094c8dc75a957f70eba64985f98ed406c7077531676c36
Model: existing-source-policy-v1

View the complete prediction record →