Kickstatix football crestKICKSTATIXFOOTBALL. WITH THE FACTS.
Every match. Every call.
Our track record ↗
← FOOTBALL PREDICTIONS

Thun vs Lugano prediction

2026-10-25 · SWZ · Kickoff 2026-10-25T14:00:00+00:00 (UTC)

Generated football stadium illustration for the Thun vs Lugano match analysis

What is the Thun vs Lugano prediction?

Kickstatix prediction: Lugano (A) at 39.2%. The double-chance call is 12 at 77.7%.

This forecast was published 2026-10-18T17:14:43+00:00 before kickoff. Probabilities express uncertainty and are not a guarantee.

Full time: 2–3

1X2 prediction: ✓ Correct

GG and total goals

Market-implied full-match picks. Results use the saved one-hour pre-kickoff quote and require a verified football score.

GG / NG · MARKET-IMPLIED

Unavailable

No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.

OVER / UNDER 2.5 · MARKET-IMPLIED

Unavailable

No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.

1X2

2 · 39.2%

Low
1 38.5%X 22.3%2 39.2%
Double chance

12 · 77.7%

Low
1X 60.8%X2 61.5%12 77.7%

Double chance was published at 2026-10-18T17:14:43+00:00, before kickoff.

Market forecast cutoff

Locks one hour before kickoff: .

No eligible frozen forecast. Kickoff changed after model publication. Excluded from market accuracy.

TWO SIGNALS. ONE MATCH.

Prediction vs Market

MARKET SENTIMENT

Market sentiment unavailable. No verified market association. Our fixture and published prediction remain available.

Prediction reasoning & independent methods
  • The selected source is hp_goals_blend_raw; A has probability 39.2%.
  • Methods disagree: largest outcome spread 17%. Confidence reduced to Low.
  • Team news is unavailable; High confidence is disabled.
  • Fixture sourced from the market schedule; market prices are excluded from this model forecast.
Method1X2
Elo ratings25.4%35.4%39.1%
Statistical · hierarchical Poisson42.8%24.5%32.8%
Pre-match stats, form & head to head

From the original training snapshot through 2026-10-11. Averages use up to ten prior league matches.

Thun

LLLWL

Scored / game: 1.70
Conceded / game: 2.70
Clean sheets: 1 / 10

2026-10-10Zurich (A)2–4
2026-09-20Vaduz (A)2–1
2026-09-16Servette (H)2–4
2026-09-12Grasshoppers (H)0–1
2026-09-06Sion (A)2–3

Lugano

WDWWW

Scored / game: 3.10
Conceded / game: 0.70
Clean sheets: 4 / 10

2026-10-10Luzern (H)4–0
2026-09-20Lausanne (A)4–0
2026-09-16St. Gallen (H)4–1
2026-09-12Young Boys (H)2–2
2026-09-06Basel (A)3–1

Head to head

2026-04-25 · Thun 0–1 Lugano

2026-04-04 · Lugano 1–0 Thun

2025-11-22 · Thun 0–1 Lugano

2025-07-27 · Lugano 1–2 Thun

2020-07-15 · Lugano 1–1 Thun

Team news & forecast record

Team news has not been verified.

Published: 2026-10-18T17:14:43+00:00
Training ends: 2026-10-11
Data fingerprint: 7f7e3a30150f64ef8ad48befb7acbddc97a183033b1363744b34b1ffaed22233
Model: existing-source-policy-v1

View the complete prediction record →