Thun vs Servette prediction
S
2026-09-16 · SWZ · Kickoff 2026-09-16T17:00:00+00:00 (UTC)
What is the Thun vs Servette prediction?
Kickstatix prediction: Servette (A) at 41.7%. The double-chance call is 12 at 75.4%.
This forecast was published 2026-09-15T21:26:46+00:00 before kickoff. Probabilities express uncertainty and are not a guarantee.
Full time: 2–4
1X2 prediction: ✓ Correct
GG and total goals
Market-implied full-match picks. Results use the saved one-hour pre-kickoff quote and require a verified football score.
Unavailable
No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.
Unavailable
No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.
2 · 41.7%
Low12 · 75.4%
LowDouble chance was published at 2026-09-16T03:04:38+00:00, before kickoff.
Market forecast cutoff
Locks one hour before kickoff: .
No eligible frozen forecast. No eligible market quote captured within 20 minutes before the one-hour cutoff. Excluded from market accuracy.
Prediction vs Market
Stale cached market data. Excluded from live comparisons.
The prices below are the latest observed market sentiment. Results are scored only against the one-hour frozen picks above.
These are post-kickoff prices and do not enter forecast performance.
| 90-minute 1X2 | Our model | Market sentiment | Market − model |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thun | 33.7% | 0.0% | N/A |
| Draw | 24.6% | 0.0% | N/A |
| Servette | 41.7% | 100.0% | N/A |
Closed or inactive market.
Activity describes trading participation, not prediction confidence. Our published baseline may use bookmaker odds. Market sentiment is excluded from model inputs.
Raw prices & normalization
For comparison, each raw price is divided by their total (100.00%). These are market prices, not factual chances of winning.
Home: 0.00% raw · Draw: 0.00% raw · Away: 100.00% raw
Probability movement · raw market prices
Changes measure market pricing, not evidence that a team will win. First available sample may be later than market opening.
Thun
Draw
Servette
All event markets · 3
Will FC Thun win on 2026-09-16?
moneyline · Closed · Resolved
Yes: 0.0% · No: 100.0%
Volume $17.60K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 4532336Fetched 2026-11-10T21:31:31+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-09-17T19:01:35.497906Z
Will FC Thun vs. Servette Geneva end in a draw?
moneyline · Closed · Resolved
Yes: 0.0% · No: 100.0%
Volume $2.56K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 4532337Fetched 2026-11-10T21:31:31+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-09-17T18:49:33.923825Z
Will Servette Geneva win on 2026-09-16?
moneyline · Closed · Resolved
Yes: 100.0% · No: 0.0%
Volume $11.69K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 4532338Fetched 2026-11-10T21:31:31+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-09-17T19:52:48.935921Z
Historical closing observations (not scored)
Retained for research. The market results record uses the separate one-hour cutoff.
Last pre-match observation: 2026-09-16T09:16:33+00:00.
View source event ↗ · Matched by competition, both team IDs, home/away order and kickoff.
Prediction reasoning & independent methods
- The selected source is shin_raw; A has probability 41.7%.
- Methods disagree: largest outcome spread 15%. Confidence reduced to Low.
- Team news is unavailable; High confidence is disabled.
| Method | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings | 36.0% | 37.0% | 27.0% |
| Market · margin removed | 33.7% | 24.6% | 41.7% |
| Statistical · hierarchical Poisson | 44.6% | 24.0% | 31.4% |
Pre-match stats, form & head to head
The original training snapshot is unavailable or failed integrity checks.
Team news & forecast record
Team news has not been verified.
Training ends: 2026-09-13
Data fingerprint: af270890114283c1c77f0c6607b264dd14890624d417d2b3da870231e06c058b
Model: existing-source-policy-v1