Toulouse vs Strasbourg prediction

2026-11-06 · F1 · Kickoff 2026-11-06T19:45:00+00:00 (UTC)

Generated football stadium illustration for the Toulouse vs Strasbourg match analysis

What is the Toulouse vs Strasbourg prediction?

Kickstatix prediction: Toulouse (H) at 42.9%. The double-chance call is 12 at 74.4%.

This forecast was published 2026-11-06T11:27:46+00:00 before kickoff. Probabilities express uncertainty and are not a guarantee.

Full time: 3–1

1X2 prediction: ✓ Correct

GG and total goals

Market-implied full-match picks. Results use the saved one-hour pre-kickoff quote and require a verified football score.

GG / NG · MARKET-IMPLIED

Unavailable

No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.

OVER / UNDER 2.5 · MARKET-IMPLIED

Unavailable

No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.

1X2

1 · 42.9%

Low

1 42.9%X 25.6%2 31.5%

Double chance

12 · 74.4%

Low

1X 68.5%X2 57.1%12 74.4%

Double chance was published at 2026-11-06T11:27:46+00:00, before kickoff.

Frozen market prediction

Locks one hour before kickoff: 2026-11-06T18:45:00+00:00.

Quote captured 2026-11-06T18:40:27+00:00. 4.5 minutes before the cutoff. Record saved 2026-11-06T18:45:20+00:00.

Market 1X2 prediction

1 · 44.7%

✓ Correct

1 44.7%2 29.6%X 25.6%

Market double chance prediction

12 · 74.4%

✓ Correct

12 74.4%1X 70.4%X2 55.3%

TWO SIGNALS. ONE MATCH.

Prediction vs Market

MARKET SENTIMENT

Stale cached market data. Excluded from live comparisons. 2026-11-11T18:45:04+00:00

The prices below are the latest observed market sentiment. Results are scored only against the one-hour frozen picks above.

These are post-kickoff prices and do not enter forecast performance.

90-minute 1X2	Our model	Market sentiment	Market − model
Toulouse	42.9%	100.0%	N/A
Draw	25.6%	0.0%	N/A
Strasbourg	31.5%	0.0%	N/A

Closed or inactive market.

1X2 volume$405.02K

1X2 liquidityUnavailable

Market activityUnavailable

Event open interest$317.66K

Activity describes trading participation, not prediction confidence. Our published baseline may use bookmaker odds. Market sentiment is excluded from model inputs.

Raw prices & normalization

For comparison, each raw price is divided by their total (100.00%). These are market prices, not factual chances of winning.

Home: 100.00% raw · Draw: 0.00% raw · Away: 0.00% raw

Probability movement · raw market prices

Changes measure market pricing, not evidence that a team will win. First available sample may be later than market opening.

Toulouse

1 hourUnavailable

6 hoursUnavailable

24 hoursUnavailable

First available sample+51.0 pp49.0% → 100.0%

Draw

1 hourUnavailable

6 hoursUnavailable

24 hoursUnavailable

First available sample-50.0 pp50.0% → 0.0%

Strasbourg

1 hourUnavailable

6 hoursUnavailable

24 hoursUnavailable

First available sample-49.0 pp49.0% → 0.0%

All event markets · 3

Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-11-06?

moneyline · Closed · Resolved

Yes: 100.0% · No: 0.0%

Volume $236.22K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 6104870
Fetched 2026-11-11T18:45:04+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-11-07T21:48:47.216294Z

Will Toulouse FC vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace end in a draw?

moneyline · Closed · Resolved

Yes: 0.0% · No: 100.0%

Volume $25.30K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 6104874
Fetched 2026-11-11T18:45:04+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-11-07T21:38:49.35202Z

Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-11-06?

moneyline · Closed · Resolved

Yes: 0.0% · No: 100.0%

Volume $143.51K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 6104879
Fetched 2026-11-11T18:45:04+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-11-07T21:38:49.35202Z

Historical closing observations (not scored)

Retained for research. The market results record uses the separate one-hour cutoff.

Last pre-match observation: 2026-11-06T19:42:05+00:00.

View source event ↗ · Matched by competition, both team IDs, home/away order and kickoff.

Prediction reasoning & independent methods

The selected source is shin_raw; H has probability 42.9%.
Methods disagree: largest outcome spread 14%. Confidence reduced to Low.
Team news is unavailable; High confidence is disabled.

Method	1	X	2
Elo ratings	31.1%	39.5%	29.5%
Market · margin removed	42.9%	25.6%	31.5%
Statistical · hierarchical Poisson	41.0%	25.3%	33.7%

Pre-match stats, form & head to head

From the original training snapshot through 2026-11-02. Averages use up to ten prior league matches.

Toulouse

WDWDL

Scored / game: 1.20
Conceded / game: 1.30
Clean sheets: 3 / 10

2026-11-01Marseille (A)0–2

2026-10-25Troyes (H)0–0

2026-10-16Le Mans (A)3–0

2026-10-10Monaco (A)2–2

2026-09-19Le Havre (H)3–2

Strasbourg

LLLLW

Scored / game: 2.20
Conceded / game: 2.30
Clean sheets: 0 / 10

2026-11-01Auxerre (H)5–1

2026-10-25Rennes (A)0–3

2026-10-17Paris SG (H)1–3

2026-10-11Nice (A)1–2

2026-09-19Paris FC (A)1–2

Head to head

2026-05-03 · Strasbourg 1–2 Toulouse

2025-12-06 · Toulouse 1–0 Strasbourg

2025-03-16 · Strasbourg 2–1 Toulouse

2025-01-12 · Toulouse 1–2 Strasbourg

2024-04-07 · Toulouse 0–0 Strasbourg

Team news & forecast record

Team news has not been verified.

Published: 2026-11-06T11:27:46+00:00
Training ends: 2026-11-02
Data fingerprint: 357d7080715e35bbe8ed6d60cb83ef0839bec698701c34343197977631eb33c4
Model: existing-source-policy-v1

View the complete prediction record →