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Union Berlin vs Dortmund prediction

2026-10-17 · D1 · Kickoff 2026-10-17T13:30:00+00:00 (UTC)

Generated football stadium illustration for the Union Berlin vs Dortmund match analysis

What is the Union Berlin vs Dortmund prediction?

Kickstatix prediction: Dortmund (A) at 61.3%. The double-chance call is X2 at 82.5%.

This forecast was published 2026-10-16T08:39:26+00:00 before kickoff. Probabilities express uncertainty and are not a guarantee.

Full time: 0–0

1X2 prediction: ✕ Wrong

GG and total goals

Market-implied full-match picks. Results use the saved one-hour pre-kickoff quote and require a verified football score.

GG / NG · MARKET-IMPLIED

Unavailable

No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.

OVER / UNDER 2.5 · MARKET-IMPLIED

Unavailable

No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.

1X2

2 · 61.3%

Medium
1 17.5%X 21.2%2 61.3%
Double chance

X2 · 82.5%

Medium
1X 38.7%X2 82.5%12 78.8%

Double chance was published at 2026-10-16T08:39:26+00:00, before kickoff.

Market forecast cutoff

Locks one hour before kickoff: .

No eligible frozen forecast. No eligible market quote captured within 20 minutes before the one-hour cutoff. Excluded from market accuracy.

TWO SIGNALS. ONE MATCH.

Prediction vs Market

MARKET SENTIMENT

Market sentiment unavailable. No verified market association. Our fixture and published prediction remain available.

Prediction reasoning & independent methods
  • The selected source is shin_raw; A has probability 61.3%.
  • Independent statistical and Elo methods agree on A; largest outcome spread 13%.
  • Team news is unavailable; High confidence is disabled.
Method1X2
Elo ratings20.7%30.7%48.6%
Market · margin removed17.5%21.2%61.3%
Statistical · hierarchical Poisson22.2%23.1%54.7%
Pre-match stats, form & head to head

From the original training snapshot through 2026-10-11. Averages use up to ten prior league matches.

Union Berlin

DLLLW

Scored / game: 1.60
Conceded / game: 2.50
Clean sheets: 2 / 10

2026-10-10Elversberg (H)1–0
2026-09-18Bayern Munich (A)0–7
2026-09-11Schalke 04 (H)1–3
2026-09-05Leverkusen (A)0–4
2026-08-29Ein Frankfurt (H)3–3

Dortmund

WWWWD

Scored / game: 2.10
Conceded / game: 0.90
Clean sheets: 5 / 10

2026-10-09Werder Bremen (H)2–2
2026-09-19Stuttgart (A)1–0
2026-09-12Paderborn (H)3–0
2026-09-05Hoffenheim (A)3–2
2026-08-29Hamburg (H)2–0

Head to head

2026-01-24 · Union Berlin 0–3 Dortmund

2025-08-31 · Dortmund 3–0 Union Berlin

2025-02-22 · Dortmund 6–0 Union Berlin

2024-10-05 · Union Berlin 2–1 Dortmund

2024-03-02 · Union Berlin 0–2 Dortmund

Team news & forecast record

Team news has not been verified.

Published: 2026-10-16T08:39:26+00:00
Training ends: 2026-10-11
Data fingerprint: 5fdaaa4cd0c54a8fb1d72177af45ec30a598c85eac1d702153be00e95a148a78
Model: existing-source-policy-v1

View the complete prediction record →