Vallecano vs Elche prediction
E
2026-10-24 · SP1 · Kickoff 2026-10-24T12:00:00+00:00 (UTC)
What is the Vallecano vs Elche prediction?
Kickstatix prediction: Vallecano (H) at 53.9%. The double-chance call is 1X at 78.6%.
This forecast was published 2026-10-23T14:10:14+00:00 before kickoff. Probabilities express uncertainty and are not a guarantee.
Full time: 0–3
1X2 prediction: ✕ Wrong
GG and total goals
Market-implied full-match picks. Results use the saved one-hour pre-kickoff quote and require a verified football score.
Unavailable
No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.
Unavailable
No eligible pre-match quote saved. No result is scored.
1 · 53.9%
Low1X · 78.6%
LowDouble chance was published at 2026-10-23T14:10:14+00:00, before kickoff.
Frozen market prediction
Locks one hour before kickoff: .
Quote captured 2026-10-24T10:56:06+00:00. 3.9 minutes before the cutoff. Record saved 2026-10-24T11:02:18+00:00.
1 · 55.2%
✕ Wrong1X · 79.6%
✕ WrongPrediction vs Market
Stale cached market data. Excluded from live comparisons.
The prices below are the latest observed market sentiment. Results are scored only against the one-hour frozen picks above.
These are post-kickoff prices and do not enter forecast performance.
| 90-minute 1X2 | Our model | Market sentiment | Market − model |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vallecano | 53.9% | 0.0% | N/A |
| Draw | 24.7% | 0.0% | N/A |
| Elche | 21.4% | 100.0% | N/A |
Closed or inactive market.
Activity describes trading participation, not prediction confidence. Our published baseline may use bookmaker odds. Market sentiment is excluded from model inputs.
Raw prices & normalization
For comparison, each raw price is divided by their total (100.00%). These are market prices, not factual chances of winning.
Home: 0.00% raw · Draw: 0.00% raw · Away: 100.00% raw
Probability movement · raw market prices
Changes measure market pricing, not evidence that a team will win. First available sample may be later than market opening.
Vallecano
Draw
Elche
All event markets · 3
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-10-24?
moneyline · Closed · Resolved
Yes: 0.0% · No: 100.0%
Volume $332.76K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 5538676Fetched 2026-11-11T13:58:15+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-25T14:04:49.927658Z
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Elche CF end in a draw?
moneyline · Closed · Resolved
Yes: 0.0% · No: 100.0%
Volume $64.89K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 5538681Fetched 2026-11-11T13:58:15+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-25T13:50:52.771841Z
Will Elche CF win on 2026-10-24?
moneyline · Closed · Resolved
Yes: 100.0% · No: 0.0%
Volume $317.79K · Liquidity Unavailable · Market 5538685Fetched 2026-11-11T13:58:15+00:00 · Provider updated 2026-10-25T14:16:50.660881Z
Historical closing observations (not scored)
Retained for research. The market results record uses the separate one-hour cutoff.
Last pre-match observation: 2026-10-24T11:54:40+00:00.
View source event ↗ · Matched by competition, both team IDs, home/away order and kickoff.
Prediction reasoning & independent methods
- The selected source is shin_raw; H has probability 53.9%.
- Independent statistical and Elo methods agree on H; largest outcome spread 10%.
- Team news is unavailable; High confidence is disabled.
| Method | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings | 43.7% | 33.1% | 23.1% |
| Market · margin removed | 53.9% | 24.7% | 21.4% |
| Statistical · hierarchical Poisson | 50.4% | 26.6% | 23.0% |
Pre-match stats, form & head to head
From the original training snapshot through 2026-10-21. Averages use up to ten prior league matches.
Vallecano
Scored / game: 1.60
Conceded / game: 1.80
Clean sheets: 1 / 10
Elche
Scored / game: 1.20
Conceded / game: 1.80
Clean sheets: 2 / 10
Head to head
2026-04-03 · Vallecano 1–0 Elche
2025-12-21 · Elche 4–0 Vallecano
2023-04-29 · Elche 4–0 Vallecano
2022-10-03 · Vallecano 2–1 Elche
Team news & forecast record
Team news has not been verified.
Training ends: 2026-10-21
Data fingerprint: c85627448e9815e247a07a7edfeca295bef5423703ade31ac7ed0e2d8e68270e
Model: existing-source-policy-v1