Market movers
Separate signals. Visible differences. Every pre-match observation kept on the record.
Premier League
55 / 74 listed matches have market data. Market-only entries are clearly labeled and excluded from our model track record.Last sync: 2026-11-12T16:46:23+00:00 · ok
No fresh 24-hour movement is available for matched fixtures. Missing history is never replaced with invented changes.
Model vs market track record
Market picks lock one hour before kickoff using the latest quote captured at or before that cutoff (maximum age: 20 minutes). Missing, late or stale quotes and changed schedules are excluded. Historical recovery uses only original stored observations; prices fetched afterwards never count.
23 paired settled matches · 36 settled fixtures excluded for missing or stale pre-match market observations. Market cutoff: one hour before kickoff. Maximum quote age at cutoff: 20 minutes.
| 1X2 signal | N | Accuracy | Log-loss ↓ | Brier ↓ | ECE ↓ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 23 | 52.2% | 1.0033 | 0.5959 | 0.0672 |
| Market sentiment | 23 | 43.5% | 0.9945 | 0.5932 | 0.2477 |